During its recent investors call, NVIDIA CEO stated that he expects GPU supply constraints could last the 'vast majority of next year which would imply that GeForce RTX graphics cards availability isn't getting better anytime soon.
NVIDIA CEO, Jensen Huang, Says GPU & GeForce RTX Graphics Card Availability Won't Get Any Better In 2022
In his statement, Jensen said that the GeForce RTX platform and Ampere, in particular, has been the best selling product lineup to date but despite that, only 20% of their userbase has shifted to RTX which means the vast majority of gamers still rely on older GeForce GTX & GeForce GT cards. NVIDIA hopes for that to change soon but given the current pricing and supply situation, that does not seem likely.
In addition, we expect sequential growth in each of our three other market platforms. Gaming demand is continuing to exceed supply as we expect channel inventories to remain below target levels as we exit Q3.
RTX's demand is quite incredible, and as you know, [Indiscernible] architecture called GTX is based on programmable shelters than the adventuresome years ago. And now we reset the entire installed house and Ampere is off to just the incredible starting the best-selling GPU architecture in the history of our company. And yet, we've only upgraded some 20% -- less than 20% of our total installed base.
Meanwhile, we have and are securing pretty significant long-term supply commitments as we expand into all these different markets initiatives that we’ve set ourselves up for. And so I think — I would expect that we will see a supply contained environment for the vast majority of next year is my guess at the moment.
NVIDIA CEO, Jensen Huang via Seeking Alpha
The main issue Jensen states are that they are obviously facing a severe GPU supply constraint despite Ampere being NVIDIA's fastest architecture ramp. In the recent earnings report, NVIDIA stated that 80% of its GeForce RTX 30 series graphics cards shipments went to gamers in Q2 '21 which means that their LHR lineup did indeed work out for them. We also saw the crypto bubble pop up which led to several retailers readjusting their prices and bringing Ampere and the rest of the GPU lineup close to their MSRP though recently, Crypto has made a rebound and an update on NBMiner has prompted miners to get slightly better hash rate even on their LHR series graphics cards.
This means that miners could still see LHR as an attractive investment opportunity if they can't find any other graphics cards for mining usage. And while availability gets better, we can't take out the huge demand for these GPUs for gamers despite the higher prices. Gamers are currently gobbling up whatever GPU they can find at whatever price they are getting them at. A lot of users refrained to get an RTX 20 series card due to smaller gen-over-gen performance improvements whereas the Ampere RTX 30 series brings a bigger upgrade over GTX 10 series and making more users want to upgrade their older GPUs and PCs.
If Jensen's predictions come true, then we might as well see a similar situation with the next-gen graphics cards from NVIDIA too. Do remember that Jensen was first to state the shortages to last till the end of 2021 but it could get worse if the CEO believes that graphics card availability & GPU shortages will persist throughout next year.