This is not investment advice. The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Wccftech.com has a disclosure and ethics policy.
Since the start of the year, the sentiment around Intel has been largely positive on expectations that the Trump administration would not allow the semiconductor player to go under, given the negative ramifications of such an outcome for the administration's "America First" agenda. These expectations were recently supercharged by reports that Intel and TSMC are mulling a JV-like arrangement, where the latter would purportedly provide its expertise and technology to the former, and helped along by copious, behind-the-scene nudges from the Trump administration. Now, KeyBanc is out with a positive note on Intel, while warning of the risks that AMD faces in the emerging price war-like situation.
To wit, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh has now reiterated his 'Sector Perform' rating for Intel shares, while noting that "Intel 18A is on track to ramp Panther Lake in 2H25 with KPIs including yields and defect densities trending in the right direction and are at acceptable levels."
In what is a critical tidbit, Vinh notes:
"We believe INTC [Intel] has won the GPU gaming socket for the Nintendo Switch 3 on 18A."
Moreover, the analyst notes that Intel has cut the price of Lunar Lake CPUs by 20 to 40 percent, resulting in incremental "market share gains" against AMD, but at the cost of limiting its "trajectory for GM [gross margin] recovery this year." Vinh also sees Intel benefiting from the "stronger than expected server demand trends."
Meanwhile, the KeyBanc analyst has concurrently downgraded AMD from a 'Sector Overweight' to a 'Sector Weight' rating, while noting the sustainability concerns around AMD's AI GPU business in China, and "increasing risk to GM given a potential price war with INTC [Intel]."
Vinh also sees "limited opportunities" for AMD to gain additional market share at the expense of Intel, given the latter's progress on its 18A process.
The analyst goes on to note:
"While the stock is relatively inexpensive, trading at 13x our 2026 EPS estimate, semiconductor stocks rarely work with risk to GMs, which we are increasingly concerned about given the aggressive price cuts by INTC [Intel]."
Interestingly, Vinh continues to see stronger demand for AMD's MI308 GPU. This aligns with a recent note from JPMorgan, where its analyst, Harlan Sur, projected that AMD's AI GPU business would grow by 60 percent in 2025.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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