AMD: Our Goal is to Get 10% Server Share by Q2 2020 with 2nd Gen EPYC CPUs & to Surpass Historical Levels in Both Server & Desktop Segments
AMD is all set to hit double-digit server market share in the next couple of months as revealed in an interview with Ruth Cotter, SVP of Worldwide Marketing at AMD, during the UBS Global Tech Conference. Some interesting market share data points for the server and consumer segments were shared by Ruth which confirms that AMD aims to exceed their previous historical market shares for each respective market.
AMD: It's Our Goal Over Time To Get Back To The Historical Market Share Levels In Server and Consumer CPU Segments
In the interview, Ruth focuses on their server processor efforts with their 1st and 2nd Gen EPYC CPUs, which have not only regained AMD their reputation of delivering a solid multi-generational roadmap for the server space, but also helped them form and build a great ecosystem around the EPYC platform. Since its launch, EPYC has landed major deals with major HPC suppliers including cloud service providers such as Microsoft Azure and Amazon AWS who now utilize AMD's EPYC processors to power their cloud instances.
AMD acknowledges that while their current server market share is about 7%, it's their goal over time to get back to the historical market share levels of 26% that they once had with their older Opteron server processors. But before they reach that, they have to set smaller yet still significant targets. Their current goal is to get to a double-digit (10%) server market share by Q2 2020 and we are already a few weeks away from Q1 2020.
So the goal is set for near-term and considering the kind of traction that 2nd Gen EPYC has been getting as of late, the goal doesn't sound that hard for AMD to hit. There have also been reports that AMD could hit that goal even before Q2 2020 which has to do with the fact that their main competitor is having significant issues with their 14nm node that delayed orders could lead enterprise users to switch over to AMD's more robust and future proof EPYC platform.
Our first generation of EPYC was called Naples, and just this August, we launched our 2nd Generation, codenamed Rome. We're at about 7% share today Tim, if you look at the IDC TAM of about 20 million units.
We also are -- it’s our goal over time to get back to the historical levels which was 26%. But before we have credibility in such an aspirational goal, we need to get to double-digit share first. So, our target is to get to 10% share by the second quarter of 2020.
If you recall back in June 2018, Intel's Ex-CEO, Brian Krzanich had stated that it's their job to not let AMD capture 15-20%. However, in less than three years, AMD has amassed a reasonable market share for server CPUs which is continuously growing. Intel's current SEO, Bob Swan, said during a recent interview that he is no longer interested in chasing a majority market share in the CPU side of things, as he believes that to be detrimental to the growth of the company.
One of the biggest advantages that EPYC Rome processors will have over Intel parts is that they will be socket compatible with EPYC Naples so all of those vendors who have been using Naples would get drop-in compatibility for AMD next-gen 7nm EPYC Rome processors on day one. AMD also has Zen 3 based EPYC Milan and Zen 4 based EPYC Genoa planned out for 2020 and 2021, respectively.
2020 will make a major year for AMD as they prepare to launch their next-gen Zen 3 core which is based on a brand new chip architecture which AMD has promised would deliver significant IPC gains, faster clocks and even higher core counts than before.
So we’re building out that portfolio very, very nicely. And we believe the features that we are building across our multi-generational roadmap are really driving total cost of ownership which is one of the key imperatives to the customer base in the data center.
So, I would say, let us get to double-digit share first and then the historical highs over time may become a little more realistic in terms of investor expectations. And then, the conversation is how do you go beyond that? You have seen this Zen underpinning of our architecture for the roadmap. We're now on Zen 2 and Zen 3. And Zen 4 will come in time and that helps on that journey.
So it's a multi-generational effort our customers have now bought in. We've enhanced our reputation in the data center, which has been important.
When it comes to desktop market share, AMD states that their historical high was at 25% during the good old days but they aren't that far behind from hitting that with Mercury Data putting the AMD hold on the desktop market at 18% as of right now and considering the immense and mind-blowing sales figures landing in from major markets (#1 and #2), AMD would not only be able to reach their 25% target by next year but even surpass it.
Our historical high of desktop share was about 25%, if you look at Mercury data, and 17%, if you look at notebook share, and we see no reason why we won't go through those share numbers. Let's get to our historical high first and then we can talk about where we go next. But that deepness of the stack and that high-end to low-end and that full stack of products is very important as we think about managing our overall portfolio and driving gross margin expansion moving forward.
AMD CPU Roadmap (2018-2020)
|Ryzen Family||Ryzen 1000 Series||Ryzen 2000 Series||Ryzen 3000 Series||Ryzen 4000 Series||Ryzen 5000 Series|
|Architecture||Zen (1)||Zen (1) / Zen+||Zen (2) / Zen+||Zen (3)||Zen (4)|
|Process Node||14nm||14nm / 12nm||7nm||7nm+||5nm?|
|High End Server (SP3)||EPYC 'Naples'||EPYC 'Naples'||EPYC 'Rome'||EPYC 'Milan'||EPYC 'Genoa'|
|Max Server Cores / Threads||32/64||32/64||64/128||TBD||TBD|
|High End Desktop (TR4)||Ryzen Threadripper 1000 Series||Ryzen Threadripper 2000 Series||Ryzen Threadripper 3000 Series (Castle Peak)||Ryzen Threadripper 4000 Series (Genesis Peak)||Ryzen Threadripper 5000 Series|
|Max HEDT Cores / Threads||16/32||32/64||64/128||64/128?||TBD|
|Mainstream Desktop (AM4)||Ryzen 1000 Series (Summit Ridge)||Ryzen 2000 Series (Pinnacle Ridge)||Ryzen 3000 Series (Matisse)||Ryzen 4000 Series (Vermeer)||Ryzen 5000 Series|
|Max Mainstream Cores / Threads||8/16||8/16||16/32||TBD||TBD|
|Budget APU (AM4)||N/A||Ryzen 2000 Series (Raven Ridge)||Ryzen 3000 Series (Picasso 14nm Zen+)||Ryzen 4000 Series (Renior)||Ryzen 5000 Series|
We will see a full range of next-gen Ryzen 4000 and EPYC Milan chips landing next year with brand new technologies and once again, stunning performance/price segments for everyone. Expect to hear more about AMD's next-gen Zen 3 core including the Ryzen & EPYC lineup at CES 2020.