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Xbox Series Forecast Increased by Analysts Following the S Reveal

Sep 10
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Microsoft revealed the official pricing, release date, and specs of both its Xbox Series consoles yesterday. The 12TF, 4K-focused Series X will launch November 10th at $499, while the 4TF, 'QuadHD' Series S will be available on the same day for $299.

This morning, Ampere Analysis Head of Games Research Piers Harding-Rolls published an updated forecast with a projected sales increase that is largely due to the Xbox Series S.

Xbox Series X Design Allows the Console to Run Quietly and Efficiently; Xbox Series S Is 40% Smaller Than the One S

[...] releasing two quite different products at the start of a generation is a significant change. It results in a more complex selling and marketing proposition, alongside all the subscription services and All Access offers, but an expected improvement in market share is a reasonable price to pay. The Xbox Series S at $299 sits below the pricing of the existing Xbox One X, so we expect this product to be removed from the line-up and Series S will offer more value to the consumer while also reducing Microsoft’s manufacturing cost base. There is still a role for a sub $199 Xbox One S product which will play most upcoming games anyway and will give Microsoft maximum flexibility when addressing a wide audience of potential console gamers. This does however leave Microsoft with less flexibility to inject sales momentum mid-cycle, but as the console market is all about intial momentum and keeping it, it is the right choice to load all its competitive capability at the front end of the cycle.

What will Xbox Series S’ impact be? 

In terms of the outlook for next-gen Xbox sales, the key assumptions are as follows:

  • Some sales of Xbox Series X will drop to the cheaper Xbox Series S
  • A portion of Xbox One sales will transfer to Xbox Series S and result in a more rapid transition to next-gen (and pull forward some sales from later in the cycle)
  • Some more Xbox One S/X users will be convinced to upgrade at this lower price point compared to the Xbox Series X (expected at $499)

As you can see below, Ampere Analysis is now forecasting 3.9 million Xbox Series consoles sold by the end of this year, which will become 13.5 in 2021, 23.7 in 2022, 34.5 in 2023, and 44.3 in 2024.

By comparison, the previous forecast released back in June had Microsoft's next-gen consoles at 3.3 million in 2020, 12 in 2021, 21 in 2022, 30 in 2023, and 37 in 2024.

It's interesting to note that Ampere Analysis also upgraded Sony's PlayStation 5 forecast slightly in this latest report. It previously had PS5 sales at 4.6 million units this year, going up to 17 in 2021, 33 in 2022, 50 in 2023 and 66 in 2024. The latest forecast puts a slightly rosier picture with 5 million units sold in 2020, 17.9 in 2021, 33.5 in 2022, 50.2 in 2023, and 67.3 in 2024.

That said, did the Xbox Series S reveal increase the likelihood of your purchase of an Xbox Series console in the upcoming generation of hardware? Vote in the poll below and let us know your opinion in the comments.

Did the Xbox Series S reveal sway your purchasing plans?
  • No, I'm still going with the more powerful Xbox Series X 31%, 141 vote
    141 vote 31%
    141 vote - 31% of all votes
  • Yes, it is the best deal between price and quality 27%, 121 vote
    121 vote 27%
    121 vote - 27% of all votes
  • No, I'm still going with the PlayStation 5 for its exclusives 22%, 98 votes
    98 votes 22%
    98 votes - 22% of all votes
  • No, I'll still play on PC to get the best possible experience 21%, 93 votes
    93 votes 21%
    93 votes - 21% of all votes
Total Votes: 453
September 10, 2020 - September 17, 2020
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