Jefferies Warns Memory Prices Will Surge 50% in Q3 2026 and Another 40% in Q4, With No Relief Until 2028

Memory prices are all set to rise further in the coming quarters of 2026 as persistent shortages continue to grip the market.

Memory Prices Will Continue Going Up, Massive 50% Hike In Q3 2026 Followed By Another 40% In Q4

Ongoing memory shortages continue to result in higher prices across the tech industry. With no positive outlook presented by the big three DRAM makers, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and China's CXMT not being the savior that the industry hoped for as the "Cheap Chinese Memory" narrative was nothing but a myth, analysts expect the prices to see a sharp increase in the coming quarters of 2026.

According to Jefferies Equity Research, it is reported that memory prices are expected to see a 40-50% rise in Q3 2026 versus the current quarter. Following Q3, the market should brace for another 30-40% hike in Q4 2026. In 2027.

A 40-45% Year-on-Year price hike is suggested, and the only recovery will be seen by 2028 when ASPs are expected to decline as new capacity, around 15 to 20 percent, comes into play. This supply won't be as meaningful as anticipated, as demand for AI and compute continues to increase.

Key Forecasts

• 3Q 2026 pricing: +40% to +50% QoQ
• 4Q 2026 pricing: +30% to +40% QoQ
• 2027 pricing: +40% to +45% YoY
• 2028 ASP: Potential decline due to 15%–20% supply growth from new capacity vs slower demand

Currently, 50% of the total capacity is covered in long-term deals and contracts that are being signed between memory makers and top tech firms. Micron already signed 16 agreements as part of its SCA's (Strategic Customer Agreements). This could rise to 70%, which means that there is going to be even fewer supply available for consumer products such as PCs, Laptops, Consoles, and smartphones, leading to higher prices across the board.

Analyst commentary highlights that the potential price hikes are higher than expected, driven by global supply shortages and process node migration. The dominance of CSPs in LTAs is reshaping supply allocation, while China’s expansion remains a longer‑term factor rather than an immediate concern.

Jefferies Equity Research

Apple is said to be exploring the integration of Chinese memory. They have been lobbying to get CXMT onboard to procure more memory for their products, which have all seen a sharp rise in retail prices since the company is left with no option but to get their memory supply from them.

Meanwhile, the expectations that Chinese DRAM and NAND will overturn the market remain a flawed narrative. Chinese firms are selling memory at similar prices to the rest, and the only advantage they have is supply, but that is primarily for domestic consumption.

The report states that Chinese products pose no threat and are no longer considered to disrupt the market during the 2026-2027 period, but that might change by 2028 when CXMT and YMTC enter the next phase of their "Epic Expansion" initiative, which will see the acceleration of new fabs and production lines. That could lead China to develop enough supply inventory to cater to offshore markets.

The memory market is poised for sustained price escalation through 2026 and 2027 due to persistent global supply shortages, strong AI-driven demand, and limited new capacity additions. Long-term contracts between major suppliers and hyperscalers will further constrain availability for consumer electronics, driving higher prices across PCs, smartphones, and other devices. While modest relief may arrive in 2028 from 15-20% new supply, Chinese DRAM/NAND producers are unlikely to provide meaningful near-term disruption or price relief, leaving the industry facing elevated costs well into the late 2020s.

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