- 0-20%: Unlikely - Lacks credible sources
- 21-40%: Questionable - Some concerns remain
- 41-60%: Plausible - Reasonable evidence
- 61-80%: Probable - Strong evidence
- 81-100%: Highly Likely - Multiple reliable sources
90%
Highly Likely
A few days ago, during AMD's Q4 earnings call, CEO Lisa Su shared some comments on the launches of Microsoft's Xbox Next Gen console and Valve's Steam Machine. When it comes to the Steam Machine, she said Valve was on track to launch it in early 2026; however, in the span of a few hours, Valve told Steam users that it had to delay finalizing the shipping schedule and pricing due to the ongoing RAM shortage.
Regarding the Xbox Next Gen hardware, Lisa Su stated that it was tracking well for a launch at some point next year. However, it appears that she was once again a little more eager than the client might have wanted. Windows Central has published a report citing that Microsoft sources were a little surprised at her comment, as there is no hard commitment to 2027 yet. It is when Microsoft would like to launch the console, but there's still work to do before committing to next year. In Su's defense, it's not on the hardware side, at least according to Windows Central. Instead, Microsoft wants to ensure that the underlying operating system and interface are as polished as needed. As such, Windows Central reckons 2027 is currently a "best case scenario".
This is because much of Microsoft's vision for the Xbox Next Gen console hinges on successfully merging the console (Xbox) and PC (Windows) sides. The first step was the Xbox handheld, but there's a lot more that needs to be done. The console will start in Xbox "mode" with a console-like interface, but users can apparently "exit" to full-fledged Windows 11 whenever they want and run basically any program there. Furthermore, just as on regular Windows, Xbox users will be able to get games from other PC stores, such as Steam or the Epic Games Store.
Given this approach, it's perhaps not much of a surprise to learn that the Xbox Next Gen console will feature Microsoft's vision when it comes to specs and pricing, but other OEM partners like ASUS or Lenovo could come up with their own versions that are either more or less powerful (and consequently more or less expensive) than Microsoft's official Xbox.
The report doesn't share much on the Xbox Next Gen console's pricing, other than Microsoft seemingly targeting a more premium offering (they did, after all, promise the largest technical leap to date). The ongoing memory shortages, as well as US tariffs, are making it hard to pin down pricing at this point.
Still, it sounds like Microsoft itself isn't too worried if the launch price is a little high, because cross-generation with the current consoles is expected to continue for even longer than the last time. This means users could continue playing their Xbox Series S or X for years before any exclusive Xbox Next Gen games are released.
By the way, according to Windows Central, a first-party Xbox handheld could still happen later down the line (despite previous reports to the contrary), although the focus is presently on the main "console".
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