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Analysts and enthusiasts alike have long speculated that Tesla would eventually launch a sub-$30,000 model to cater to the more affordable segment of the market. While the EV giant recently did announce the Cybercab, which is expected to retail at a sub-$30,000 price point, it remains more of a niche offering. Now, however, we've received the strongest signal yet that Tesla is indeed working on a hatchback, and analysts are predictably honing in on this tantalizing tidbit.
We’ve long speculated the new $25K-$30K $TSLA vehicle will be a Model 3 hatchback, which this picture in GlobalChinaEV would seem to substantiate, and would compete with BYD’s successful Dolphin (pictures below). This could be similar for TSLA as the 2020 launch of Model Y CUV…
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) December 9, 2024
To wit, GlobalChinaEV recently set the proverbial tongues wagging when it disclosed that Tesla communicated to the Deutsche Bank in an investor meeting that it intends to launch a more affordable, sub-$30,000 model, dubbed Q, in H1 2025 to better compete against BYD Dolphin and Volkswagen ID.3 in China. The publication went on to note:
"The Model Q will use a lithium iron phosphate battery pack with 53 kWh and 75 kWh capacity configurations on single and dual-motor drive variants, with an estimated range of 500 km."
Raising my $TSLA price target to $380 from $300, based on increased conviction that TSLA will launch a $25K-$30K hatchback that vaults TSLA into the global compact category (~15% global share). I have increased my TSLA Adj EPS as follows:
- 2025 $3.80 from $3.60 (WS $3.29)
-… pic.twitter.com/EInUAo0VOZ— Gary Black (@garyblack00) December 9, 2024
Now, this tantalizing tidbit is attracting stock price upgrades from seasoned analysts such as Future Fund's Gary Black, who has raised his target for Tesla shares from $300 to $380, premised on a significant expansion in the EV giant's Total Addressable Market (TAM). For reference, do note that hatchbacks command a 15 percent market share globally.
This rumor is clearly BS.
If DB disclosed Tesla Model Q per private meeting - both the DB analysts and Travis have committed severe SEC violation on MLPI. That type of release HAS to be via press release. he did share “teleoperators” - already known via recruiting info.
— DM Trading (@dartmonkeytrdg) December 9, 2024
Of course, others remain quite skeptical of the rumored Model Q, especially as the given disclosure vector for this news violates explicit guidelines from the SEC.
🔥🦾 Tesla has released an official video showcasing Optimus’s progress in walking and maintaining balance on soft and uneven terrain.
It can even recover from nearly falling!pic.twitter.com/CXfaqSqV2N
— Tesla Newswire (@TeslaNewswire) December 9, 2024
Meanwhile, Tesla continues to hype up the capabilities of its Optimus bipedal robot. Bank of America recently noted that Tesla plans to deploy around 1,000 Optimus robots on its factory floors by the end of 2025.
CFRA on raising their $TSLA price target to $450 today (from $375): "Our Buy rating reflects our view that shares are deserving of higher multiples on a more favorable view of the regulatory approval timeline for TSLA’s autonomous driving technology; Tesla’s Energy Storage…
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) December 10, 2024
Finally, we note that CFRA also hiked its target price for Tesla shares today to $450, citing a growing valuation premium courtesy of various in-development technologies, including "a ride-hailing app, a humanoid robot, AI computing, and fully self-driving vehicles."
Do you think Tesla is about to launch the rumored Model Q? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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