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In a matter of hours, Tesla will finally unveil the newest addition to its product portfolio: the much-anticipated robotaxi. In our view, though, Cybercab simply sounds a lot cooler. Of course, by tomorrow, we will know exactly what Tesla ends up calling its latest product, which is expected to personify the very ethos of the EV giant's FSD-related ambitions. Yet, Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the most prominent Apple supply chain analysts, does not want you to get too excited.
1. Some market participants are optimistic about Tesla's robotaxi event on October 10. However, my latest supply chain survey indicates that Tesla's robotaxi (aka Cybercab) may enter mass production in 1Q27. Because mass production is still some time away, expectations for a… https://t.co/OeIh6dNwrT
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) October 9, 2024
To wit, Ming-Chi Kuo has leveraged his supply chain surveys to conclude that the Tesla robotaxi will only be able to enter into mass production by the first quarter of 2027. The analyst also believes that this delayed rollout is, at least in part, due to the fact that the FSD capability of Tesla's bespoke Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) still needs some time to achieve the Level 4 autonomy that is a fundamental requirement for regulatory authorization.
The analyst also notes:
"Because mass production is still some time away, expectations for a significant rally in $TSLA following the event may be overly optimistic."
Of course, at the other end of the spectrum, Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has quoted Elon Musk's comments to note that Tesla will be able to achieve the robotaxi-enabling requisite level of autonomy by "next year," setting the stage for a formal launch "in the next year or two."
ARK Invest's Tasha Keeney goes on to note:
"Even before full autonomy is achieved, Tesla could launch a human-driven ride-hail service, which would collect valuable data on routes, customer behavior, and operational dynamics while also informing its service infrastructure and building its customer base."
So, pick your poison: Ming-Chi Kuo's channel checks suggest an early 2027 launch, while ARK Invest relies on Elon Musk's comments to suggest a launch window in 2025-2026. Of course, Musk has not been a paragon of fidelity when it comes to the timeline of Tesla's product launches. After all, the CEO of Tesla has been promising full autonomy for nearly a decade now. And then we have the comments from the judge in a recently concluded FSD-related lawsuit, where Musk's FSD-related embellishments were termed "corporate puffery."
Interestingly, Keeney suggests that Tesla could jump-start its robotaxi service by deploying "a fleet of existing Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, including those coming off lease and out of inventory," with customer self-enrollments also adding to the robotaxi fleet.
Presumably, Tesla will be able to deploy its robotaxi services a lot faster than Waymo, especially as it does not need to rely on geofencing and very detailed, HD mapping of eligible areas. However, do note that, as per the data from California DMV, Waymo records a disengagement every 17,311 miles on average, which is far, far above what Tesla can currently achieve.
$TSLA - TESLA ROBOTAXI TO HAVE BUTTERFLY-WING DOORS, TWO SEATS
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 9, 2024
Meanwhile, here is what we know about Tesla's robotaxi/Cybercab so far. It is expected to share the same platform that the EV giant intends to leverage for rolling out its cheaper sub-$30,000 Model 2. The vehicle's camouflaged image suggested that it would be a very small vehicle. Now, Bloomberg has reported that the robotaxi will feature butterfly-wing doors and just two seats.
On the hardware front, the robotaxi will support Tesla's successor to the HW3 and HW4: the AI5, with around 10x the capability of the HW4. Also, some have analyzed the camouflaged robotaxi picture to suggest that the AI5 might even sport a LiDAR.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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