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While Elon Musk's dabbling in active politics was considered a potent tailwind for Tesla earlier this year, when the bonhomie between Trump and Musk was at its apex, that is no longer the case. Now, as Tesla bleeds federal EV credits and the demand for the ZEV regulatory credits is all set to crash, not to mention Elon Musk's shock debut of a new political party in the US, things could not possibly look any worse for Tesla. Yet, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas has still managed to find a rare bit of sunlight for the embattled EV giant.
For the benefit of those who might not be aware, Elon Musk recently commissioned a poll on whether the US needs a new political party. After the majority voted in favor of the proposition, Musk formally announced that he would indeed follow through on forming a new party. Interestingly, a filing with the federal election commission that had gone viral over the weekend has been officially denounced by the CEO of the EV giant as "false."
This brings us to the crux of the matter. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, a reliable perma-bull on Tesla, has now penned a new note on these recent developments, calling on investors to "be prepared for further devotion of resources (financial, time/attention) in the direction of Mr. Musk’s political priorities which may add further near-term pressure to TSLA shares."
Jonas has tried to defend Elon Musk's relentless political activism, calling it a "part of a planned strategy to achieve a specific goal," adding that it is intended to “bring maximum public attention to a range of issues.”
Jonas also appreciated Tesla's Q2 delivery numbers, which were largely in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. As a refresher, Tesla disclosed last week that it delivered 384,122 units in Q2 2025 against a production level of 410,244 units. This number more or less aligned with the Tesla IR-compiled consensus estimate of 385,086 units.
Coming to the meatiest part of the note, Jonas thinks Tesla can save a whopping $2.5 billion if it were to replace just 10 percent of its 125,665 employees with the Optimus humanoid robots, where each such robot entails a NPV of $200,000, as per Morgan Stanley's calculations.
On the flip side, Jonas flagged Tesla's energy business, where energy storage deployments in Q2 were largely flat on an annual basis.
This comes as the federal tax credits on EVs and solar are now set to end by the 30th of September and the 31st of December, respectively, courtesy of Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill.' What's more, the legislation has also devastated the demand for ZEV regulatory credits by eliminating penalties for automakers for failing to meet the federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.
Bear in mind that ZEV credits were a significant source of income for Tesla, which has earned billions of dollars under California's ZEV mandate, which itself was the product of an exemption carved out by the Senate, allowing the state to impose stricter emissions standards. This exemption has now been withdrawn. Of course, the EV giant will continue to benefit from these credits in the EU.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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