Investment bank Bernstein believes that memory prices will jump as NVIDIA's Vera Rubin AI chips start to ship in volume. Memory prices have surged as part of the current AI buildout, as the chips become another constraint apart from the technology used to package the AI GPUs. Bernstein believes that prices for the next and fourth generation high bandwidth memory (HBM4) chips could sit at $53 per gigabyte in 2027, with NVIDIA choosing to pass the costs on to its customers.
Bernstein Believes NVIDIA's NVL72 Rack Costs $9.1 Million, Higher Than Morgan Stanley's Estimate
Bernstein's report comes after an earlier one from Morgan Stanley discussing the prices for a single NVIDIA Rubin NVL72 GPU rack. It suggested that a Vera Rubin NL72 rack could cost roughly $7.8 million, with memory prices accounting for $2 million of the price tag to mark a 435% annual jump. The costs indicated by Morgan Stanley were for the memory chips outside the GPU and were unlikely to represent the price of HBM memory within the Vera Rubin NVL72 system.
However, Bernstein believes that the system is more expensive than what Morgan Stanley outlines. It shares that the costs for next-generation HBM4 memory are not reflective of reality and adds that they could push the end price to as much as $9.1 million per rack.
Current Estimates Of NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 Rack Memory Prices Are Out Of Date, Says Bernstein
Bernstein explicitly states that the $7.8 million figure appears to be driven by "stale memory prices," with the disconnect stemming from HBM prices. It adds that "we land at a similar figure if we use HBM 4 price of ~16.6 / GB." However, according to the financial firm, this price is not reflective of the current rates in the market. As per Bernstein, HBM4 memory price should increase to $53/GB in 2027 as the Vera Rubin AI chips start shipping in volume.
IT also believes that NVIDIA will pass the higher memory prices to customers, and owing to the high memory prices, the storage and memory costs of the NVL72 rack should be roughly $3.2 million. The new estimate is higher than the $2 million shared by Morgan Stanley in its coverage, which Bernstein believes is "implied by historical prices."
About the author: Ramish is a seasoned technology writer and editor with more than a decade of experience. He specializes in semiconductor fabrication and market analysis. With a background in finance and supply chain management - via his bachelors in Finance and a micromasters in supply chain management from MIT - Ramish combines financial rigor with deep industry insight to deliver accurate and authoritative coverage.
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