A new UBS Evidence Lab has now cast a substantial pall over Apple's iPhone-related demand pillars. While the iPhone purchase intent has risen in the US, the UK, and Germany, it appears to have cratered in China, with the new Siri's upcoming AI features seemingly failing to spur demand, and compounded by a decline in the iPhone Ultra's net interest metric.
Apple Intelligence and the new Siri are apparently failing to drive incremental demand, while the net interest for the upcoming iPhone Ultra has declined by 100 basis points
A new UBS Evidence Lab survey, which spanned over 7,500 smartphone users across the US, the UK, Germany, China, and Japan, is proving to be an eye-opener on the immediate prospects of Apple's upcoming demand pillars. Before delving deeper, do note that 100 basis points equal 1 percent.
On the survey's positive side, the average consumer intent to buy an Apple iPhone over the next 1 month or so increased by 3 percent year-over-year to 20 percent of the survey respondents in the US, while recording an increase of 6 percent in the UK, 4 percent in Germany, and 1 percent in Japan over the same period. The good news stops here, however, especially as the iPhone-related purchase intent plummeted in China by 1 percent year-over-year to just 15 percent of the survey respondents.
Also, while the average age of an iPhone ticked down by 0.8 months to 22.9 months, it still hovered "near survey highs." Of course, with iPhone-related price hikes already in the works, as illustrated by the iPhone 18 Pro's expected retail price of $1,399, you should expect this metric to only worsen in the near future.
Critically, the survey finds that Apple Intelligence and the new Siri are not spurring much excitement, with total respondents who indicated a willingness to upgrade sooner to avail the new features declining by 5 percent to just 24 percent. In the same vein, the proportion of respondents who disclosed their indifference to such features rose by 3 percent to a whopping 31 percent. This is a worrying sign, especially as Apple is apparently banking on the new Siri's enhanced functionality to justify the upcoming price hikes.
Finally, in what bodes ill for the prospects of Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone, tentatively called the iPhone Ultra or the iPhone Fold, the net interest metric - defined as the difference between those expressing interest to those showing indifference - for the foldable iPhone declined by 1 percent to 39 percent. As the lone saving grace, however, the foldable iPhone's favorability vs. a generic foldable smartphone increased by 6 percent.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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