President Donald Trump has announced that the United States will temporarily close its Canadian border to "non-essential traffic" to stem the Coronavirus (COVID19) outbreak. This is a move that follows after the European Union's move to close its external borders to non-citizens.
The United States closes its Canadian borders to non-essential traffic
Canada's PM Justin Trudeau has already announced that it will be closing its borders to non-citizens so this move is not unexpected. International borders have been closing all over the world as companies rapidly shut down cross-border transport to hinder the spread of the pandemic. It's worth pointing out that trade will be unaffected so that means shipments and posts are still going through.
The announcement was shared in a tweet:
We will be, by mutual consent, temporarily closing our Northern Border with Canada to non-essential traffic. Trade will not be affected. Details to follow!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 18, 2020
The situation with the Coronavirus is quickly going from bad to worse and global markets all over the world are reacting to a possible worst-case scenario. Here is the catch though, if the report shared by Imperial College is accurate (and there is no reason to think it isn't) then we are likely looking at one of the worst possible situations in history. This is the same report which forced the United States to take extreme precautions. I would recommend that everyone that has the slightest interest in COVID (which should be everyone) give this thread a read:
We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.https://t.co/AwE2cHIbeJ
— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020
After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.
— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020
How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.
— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020
Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.
— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020
It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end
— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020
The simulation that the Imperial College ran points to there being no easy way out of this pandemic. Evidence points to this not being a seasonal strain and will probably not dissipate with summer. If that is the case then people will have to stay in quarantine till a vaccine is available or at the very least assume a 1-month open - 2-month quarantine cadence till the whole population is vaccinated. Failure to do so will result in large portions of the population dying out.
Interestingly, the paradox of preparation will play a big part as well. One of the biggest observations with effective containment and prevention systems is that if they work well, people think its an overreaction. If all of the quarantine works and very few people die before the vaccine is made available, in hindsight, people will think this was an overreaction.
Globalization has been paused and countries are snapping back to pure nationalism. With US discussing a universal basic income to help its citizens in need we are deep in uncharted territory as far as the economy goes as well. One thing is for certain, if the Coronavirus turns out to not be affected by summer, we will have a very tough few months to go through.
About the author: PC Hardware and Technology Enthusiast, Blood of Silicon (1 nm),
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