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With Tesla shares now down ~51 percent from their all-time high closing price of $479.86, reached on December 17, 2024, investors and analysts alike have been ferociously pondering over the question: what price level will mark Tesla's nadir? Now, according to one Tesla expert, the stock hit rock bottom last week.
I continue to believe $TSLA bottomed last week. The reduction in TSLA 1Q and FY’25 deliv ests is likely now discounted. Most investors realize that the absence of new refreshed Model Ys was the major reason for the 1Q delivery estimate decline rather than Elon’s politics and… pic.twitter.com/7x2R8ZFCOi
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) March 18, 2025
To wit, Future Fund's Gary Black believes Tesla shares hit their cyclical nadir last week, citing Bloomberg's compilation of credit card data to note that Tesla's US sales have not actually deviated from their historical pattern despite the brouhaha over Elon Musk's overt political role in the Trump administration 2.0 and ensuing claims of significant brand damage.
Ouch! JP Morgan expects $TSLA to report its worst quarterly deliveries in three years:
“We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly." pic.twitter.com/1yxKoIc0X4
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) March 17, 2025
Nonetheless, our readers should note that Tesla's quarterly deliveries are expected to be abnormally weak this time around, with JP Morgan expecting the company to post its worst quarterly deliveries data in three years.
According to Black, five bearish factors coalesced recently to hammer Tesla shares: limited inventory for the Model Y Juniper and the attendant delays in customer purchases, fears around the tainting of the brand, skepticism in relation to the more affordable hatchback model that is due to enter production by the end of Q2, democratization of autonomous driving as Chinese players up their game, and valuation concerns.
$TSLA bulls no longer criticizing us for taking some $TSLA profits off the table at $350 after the election. While we are sometimes overly disciplined, $TSLA ‘s mid-November forward P/E of 120x made no sense unless one assumed TSLA long-term earnings growth of 60%+ per year (2x… pic.twitter.com/br4ORRR3ze
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) March 18, 2025
As another evidence of Tesla going through its bottoming out process, Black cites the fact that Wall Street expects the EV giant to post long-term earnings growth of 35 percent, "which warrants a forward P/E of 70-75x (currently 81x)."
Meanwhile, as noted above, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard has now turned bullish on Tesla, pegging a $425 share price target and an 'Overweight' rating.
Sheppard believes the EV giant's current share price constitutes an attractive entry point ahead of "upcoming material catalysts."
"We become bullish on TSLA ahead of material catalysts Including: the introduction of Robotaxi segment (June 2025), rollout of FSD in China (started in 1Q25), rollout of FSD in Europe (we expect 1H25 pending regulatory approval), introduction of lower-priced vehicle in 1H25 (we expect initial price of ~$30,000 inclusive of tax credit), high volume production of Optimus Bot (2026), initial deliveries of Optimus to customers (we expect 4Q26E/1H26) and introduction of Semi Truck (we expect SOP in 2H25/2026)."
On the negatives, Sheppard still expects Tesla to post a "mild 1Q" deliveries print, courtesy of sales weakness in Europe and increased competition in China. Bear in mind that China alone contributed ~21 percent to the company's total revenue in FY 2024. Also, the analyst expects Tesla's delivery cadence to be impacted by Trump tariffs and the likely removal of EV tax credits.
The analyst concludes by noting:
"We see future revenue upside from FSD, Robotaxi, Energy Storage & Deployment, and Optimus Bots, to be fundamental to TSLA's thesis over the long term."
Finally, we note that Ross Gerber, who is one of Tesla's earliest investors, has now publicly called on Elon Musk to resign from his post as CEO, citing his "divisive" persona and alleging that he has "destroyed the company's reputation." Do note that Gerber's wealth management company owns roughly 260,000 Tesla shares.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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