Which console will “win” 2019? The PS4 and Switch battled it out for top spot all throughout 2018, but Nintendo’s hybrid console may pull into the lead in 2019. GamesIndustry.biz asked several top games industry analysts, including Dr. Serkan Toto, Michael Pachter, and the NPD Group’s Mat Piscatella for their 2019 prognostications, and everybody was very pro-Switch. Many of these analysts have access to inside information, so you can take their predications without excess salt (well, except Pachter – always take what he says with full salt). Here’s what Piers Harding-Rolls of IHS Markit had to say…
“Switch will be the best selling console in 2019 as PS4 and Xbox One shift into the late stage phase of their sales lifecycles. We may get more details on how Nintendo aims to plug the gap in its portfolio left by the declining 3DS platform. One option is to do nothing and stick with the current Switch strategy. That simplifies the platform strategy but may not be the most commercially efficient.”
And here’s Piscatella’s prediction…
“In console hardware, Switch grows, [and] leads [the] market. I have Switch achieving more than 35 share of hardware unit sales in the US in 2019, with Pokémon and continued strength of Nintendo's evergreen franchises driving the performance.”
Interestingly, several of the analysts also predict new Switch models will be offered in 2019. Dr. Toto, who has a very solid track record when it comes to predictions, expects Nintendo to launch both a Switch Pro and Lite this year.
This is a wind-down year for Sony and Microsoft, while the Switch ought to be hitting its stride, so Nintendo’s console being #1 makes sense. I also think a smaller, more-cheaply-manufactured, portable-only Switch is very likely coming this year – a 4K-capable Pro model is probably in the works too, but we may have to wait a bit longer for that. It will also be interesting to see if Microsoft can possibly pull into second place on the strength of Xbox Game Pass and the release of a rumored streaming-only machine.
What do you expect to happen in 2019? Share your wild predictions below!