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Tesla continued to face delivery headwinds in the second quarter and should miss consensus estimates, believes investment bank JPMorgan. In a fresh investment note, the bank shares that Tesla's second quarter deliveries should be roughly 360,000 vehicles, which is significantly lower than the consensus estimate of 392,000 and JPMorgan's earlier estimate of 395,000. The bank shares that it relied on publicly and privately available data and fine-tuned it with seasonality estimates and Chinese vehicle insurance data. Consequently, JPMorgan reasserts an Underweight rating on Tesla's shares and keeps a $15 share price target for the firm.
Tesla Likely To Miss Second Quarter Deliveries By A Wide Margin, Says JPMorgan
JPMorgan's latest Tesla delivery estimate comes just as data from Europe continues to show disappointing performance for the firm. Tesla shares in Frankfurt dipped by 5.6% after data revealed that sales in Denmark and Sweden had continued to disappoint. Data from Mobility Denmark, reviewed by Reuters, revealed that year-over-year Tesla registrations sank by a whopping 61.6% in June, while data from Sweden revealed that the registrations had dipped by a far steeper 64.4%.
Analysts have attributed the declining sales to a variety of factors, which include Tesla CEO Elon Musk's politics, a production overhaul, the launch of a new Model Y and fierce competition from Chinese electric vehicle companies.
The latest data from Europe appears to mirror JPMorgan's estimates. In a fresh note, the investment bank posits that Tesla can deliver 360,000 vehicles in the second quarter. If its figures are accurate, the deliveries would mark an 18% annual drop from Q2 2024's 444,000 vehicle deliveries.
JPMorgan's latest report reduces its earlier estimate by 35,000 vehicles, with the bank outlining that it relied on publicly available vehicle data from Europe, data gathered by research firms in the US and China's vehicle insurance estimates to extrapolate its latest Tesla second-quarter delivery estimate. Tesla's shares have lost 5.8% in pre-market trading as investors battle with the dropping deliveries and growing tensions between Musk and President Donald Trump.
The bank's earlier Tesla vehicle delivery forecast of 395,000 vehicles already marked an 11% annual drop over the Q2 2024 figures. 2024 was a tough year for Tesla as inflation and high interest rates depressed the electric vehicle market.
Market consensus expects Tesla to deliver 392,000 vehicles in the second quarter, which is slightly higher than the company-compiled consensus estimates of 385,000 vehicles. Tesla's shares are down by 16% year-to-date as the firm struggles with overall bearish sentiment fueled by political woes, delivery constraints, and, more recently, a less-than-stellar rollout of its highly anticipated robotaxi service. While it maintained Tesla's share price target, JPMorgan reduced its 2025 EPS estimate to $1.75 from an earlier $2.07 and slashed the 2026 EPS figure to $2.40 from $2.85.
About the author: Ramish is a seasoned technology writer and editor with more than a decade of experience. He specializes in semiconductor fabrication and market analysis. With a background in finance and supply chain management - via his bachelors in Finance and a micromasters in supply chain management from MIT - Ramish combines financial rigor with deep industry insight to deliver accurate and authoritative coverage.
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