Industry insiders are seeing a decline in the cost of DRAM, saying that the price of memory will drop dramatically between the last quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of next year. Specialists state that we will witness a cost adjustment between 13-18 percent.
DRAM is confirmed to decline up to 18% by the end of the fourth quarter of 2022
Three months ago, Trendforce estimated that the cost of DRAM on a global scale would decline because of increased inflation affecting the marketplace for consumers. However, the organization stated that we should expect a 13-18% decline in cost and an additional three to eight percent afterward. It is unsure if that remains true, but with the adoption of DDR5 becoming the standard, consumer DRAM will continue to also be in higher demand. Not only should we expect a decline in the cost of memory, but also shipments of memory.
Server memory is the most affected, declining by almost eighteen percent, even with server DRAM being in higher demand over the last year, surpassing DRAM memory used for mobile technology, such as tablets, notebooks, and smartphones.
Due to macroeconomic factors and supply chain constraints, we have seen a broadening of customer inventory adjustments. As a result, our expectations for CY22 industry bit demand growth for DRAM and NAND have declined since our June 30, 2022 earnings call, and we expect a challenging market environment in Q4 FY2022 and Q1 FY2023. Q4 FY2022 revenue may come at or below the low end of the revenue guidance range provided in our June 30 earnings call.
In Q1 FY2023, bit shipments are expected to decline sequentially, and we expect significant sequential declines in revenue and margins. […] To address the near-term environment, today we are announcing new FY2023 wafer fab equipment (WFE) Capex reductions adding to the WFE Capex reductions discussed in our June 30 earnings call. We now expect FY 2023 total Capex to be down meaningfully versus FY2022.
— from the Micron filing with the SEC.
Insiders do see hope, but it is several years off. The anticipated year for the growth rate of DRAM is 2026, where analysts are estimating the demand for server memory to hit twenty-four percent.
News Source: IT Home via TechWeb