Apple's probable return to Intel's fabs is not a threat to TSMC, which remains the "most trustworthy AI compounder," according to a new research report from Bernstein SocGen Group.
One analyst claims Apple's deal with Intel poses no threat to TSMC, especially given Intel's technology lag and the relatively "small" quantity of chips involved
Bernstein is out with an interesting report today, noting that the chip fabrication deal between Apple and Intel, which is reportedly close to becoming official after a preliminary agreement, poses no threat to TSMC.
Bernstein analyst, Mark Li, believes there is "no sign suggesting Intel narrowing the gap with TSMC technology," going on to argue that the chip fabrication deal between Apple and Intel likely spans only "small" volumes. As such, Li believes TSMC remains the most cost-efficient option for Apple.
For the benefit of those who might not be aware, under its tentative partnership with Intel, Apple is likely to leverageย Intel's 18A-P process for the base M7 chipsย that are expected to ship in 2027. What's more, Apple is now expected to fabricate its 2028-launching A21 chip either on Intel's 18A-P process or the more advanced 14A one.
Do note that Apple has already procured PDK samples from Intel to evaluate its 18A-P process. In the same vein, GF Securities believes that Apple's upcoming ASIC - dubbed Baltra and expected to launchย either in 2027 or 2028ย - will alsoย leverage Intel's EMIB packaging.
Coming back, while Samsung's foundry technology is improving, the Bernstein analyst argues it remains subpar relative to TSMC's, which is the only fab that is mass-producing "true 2nm" chips right now. Do note that Samsung's GAA 2nm node is functionally equivalent to TSMC's 3nm one.
As such, the analyst believes Samsung and Intel fabs may well gain additional traction, but mainly due to geopolitical reasons, with such traction largely concentrated on the more mature nodes.
We did cite a Daishin Securities report last week to posit that AMD appears to have awarded Samsung an order for manufacturing its 2nm-based Venice and Veranos CPUs.
Meanwhile, we reported earlier today that TSMC appears to be in no mood to cede ground on capacity and technology leadership, with as many as 12 different fabs currently in various stages of construction to cement TSMC's lead on 2nm and A14 (1.4nm) nodes.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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