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Just a few weeks back, NVIDIA shares appeared pinned to a despair-laden precipice, buffeted by an expansive trade war, and the Trump administration's incremental steps to decouple China from Western silicon tech. Yet, a few days later, the two largest economies in the world have undergone a tentative rapprochement, and the Biden administration's AI diffusion rules are on their way out, likely to be replaced by a chip-focused global licensing regime that will be negotiated on a government-to-government basis. Now, one analyst is citing these developments and NVIDIA's uncanny ability to smash guidance expectations in the long run to remain in the bullish camp.
To wit, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse has now reiterated an 'Overweight' rating for NVIDIA shares along with a stock price target of $200.
While the analyst concedes that "expectations have moved higher post the AI announcements from the Middle East last week and Computex this week," he continues to "view this May 28th earnings call as a positive clearing event."
Muse now expects NVIDIA to provide revenue guidance of $46 billion for its July-ending quarter vs. consensus expectations of $46.3 billion. Critically, this relative weakness incorporates the ~$5 billion impact from the Trump administration's decision to impose licensing requirements on NVIDIA's China-specific H20 GPUs, partially offset by "meaningful Blackwell ramp."
The Cantor Fitzgerald analyst also sees an acceleration in NVIDIA's rack-scale shipments in H2 2025, enabled by the production ramp-up of GB300 GPUs in Q4 2025. As such, the analyst expects NVIDIA to ship around 25,000 units of its rack-scale GB300 systems in CY 2025.
Accordingly, Muse believes NVIDIA's data center segment will rake in $200 billion in revenue for CY 2025 vs. current consensus expectations of $175 billion.
Also, the analyst expects NVIDIA to reiterate its guidance for an H2 2025 gross margin in the "mid-70s".
Muse goes on to note:
"While shares have rallied considerably from the recent April 7th lows, shares still only trade at 26.8x/19.9x our expected CY25/26 earnings outlook. Couple this backdrop with our vision for this earnings report to mark a clearing event with strong line-of-sight to reacceleration of revenues into 2HCY25 and we continue to see meaningful upside for shares."
To wrap up, Muse believes NVIDIA's guidance for the next quarter will fall short of expectations, but that only sets the stage for a fierce rebound in H2 2025. It is for this reason he believes the upcoming earnings will act as a "clearing event," flushing away the last vestiges of bearish catalysts.
Meanwhile, NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang is now publicly castigating the Biden Administration's AI diffusion rules as "exactly wrong," claiming that China is now at par with the US in the ongoing AI race and that limiting China's chip access would only bolster its home-grown players to the detriment of entrenched Western players.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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