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Typically, it is the astronomical fiscal deficit enshrined within the annual budget document of the US that garners attention. This time around, however, President Biden's 2025 budget is attracting quite a lot of eyeballs from the crypto sphere, courtesy of a line item embedded toward the end of the voluminous financial document that illustrates the US government's projections vis-a-vis Bitcoin.
BREAKING🚨 Biden's 2025 budget is very bullish on #Bitcoin , the White House expects $250k by 2035.
They are counting on it for their tax revenues! pic.twitter.com/JOipF3PKpG
— Pierre Rochard (@BitcoinPierre) March 11, 2024
Riot Platform's VP of Research, Pierre Rochard, recently distilled the US government's revenue projections from the regulation and taxation of digital assets into the theoretical price of Bitcoin that underpins those estimates. As per his findings, the US Office of Management and Budget expects Bitcoin to hit $250,000 by 2034 - 2035. If you wish to examine that line item yourself, head over to page 163 of this document.
Basically, Rochard divides the revenue that the US government expects to generate from digital assets in 2025 ($1.035 billion) by Bitcoin's current price of around $72,000. He then multiplies the result by the revenue of $3.65 billion that the government expects to generate in 2035, leading to an end result of $254,158 as the expected price of one Bitcoin. Critically, this analysis ignores any improvements in the government's regulatory or taxation capacity in relation to digital assets in driving up the revenue projections.
BREAKING 🚨 Biden expects the #Bitcoin mining industry to 10x in the United States over the next decade, this would imply $6 million price target for #BTC . Even more bullish than the wash trading line item.
American dynamism and energy abundance will make this possible! pic.twitter.com/f1IEDabpsm
— Pierre Rochard (@BitcoinPierre) March 11, 2024
By applying the same approach to the budget's projections for digital asset mining excise tax, Rochard arrives at an estimated assumed price of around $6 million for one Bitcoin by 2033.
We noted earlier today that Bitcoin has now formed a new all-time high on the back of a confluence of benevolent tailwinds, which include soaring inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs, MicroStrategy's ongoing Bitcoin purchases, and the upcoming halving event and the deflationary forces that it is expected to unleash.
"I think Bitcoin makes a beeline back towards its long-term trend line, which is probably $82,000 in the near term, $150,000 before year-end," says @fundstrat's Tom Lee as $BTC closes in on its all-time high. pic.twitter.com/g4p6VOTECx
— Last Call (@LastCallCNBC) March 5, 2024
Even if we assume that Rochard's rudimentary calculations paint a correct picture, the underlying assumptions in relation to the $250,000 price of Bitcoin are likely to be very conservative. After all, based on Bitcoin's current momentum, it can certainly hit the $100,000 price level within the next few months. In fact, Fundstrat's Tom Lee expects Bitcoin to close the year at a price of around $150,000.
What's more, some analysts, such as André Dragosch, ETC Group's head of research, are now openly calling for Bitcoin to usurp the primacy of Gold as the premier safe-haven asset. Based on the two assets ' stock-to-flow ratios, Dragosch posits that Bitcoin will become double as scarce as Gold in the post-halving phase. Consequently, the analyst contends that the world's pre-eminent cryptocurrency will eventually overtake Gold's AUM. To do so, however, it will have to reach a price level of around $600,000.
Note: The article has been updated with the insight related to the $6 million price tag for Bitcoin.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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