It was just yesterday that we learned in an official capacity that the Nintendo Switch 2 had sold over 3.5 million units in the first four days. That was already billed as the fastest-selling Nintendo console ever, but now IGN has confirmed with the Japanese manufacturer that the new hardware is selling twice as fast as the original Switch when considering the same timeframe (the first four days on the market). The Switch had sold 2.7 million units in nearly a month since launching in stores.
So far, analyst estimates have been fully confirmed. Shortly after the console's public reveal in early April, DFC Intelligence said it would be a 'resounding success' with 15 million sold by the end of 2025. Last month, they also provided a long-term outlook. Calling it the most important console launch ever, they shared the estimate that the Nintendo Switch 2 could sell as many as a hundred million units by the end of 2029.
Wccftech friend Rhys Elliott, who recently moved from MIDiA Research to Alynea Analytics, was a bit more tentative when outlining his outlook. In a LinkedIn post, he said that this year's holiday season will be crucial for the console's momentum:
I was certain the Switch 2 would initially outsell the original. The OG was heavily supply-constrained and was held back at launch (although the FOMO almost certainly added to demand). This time, Nintendo knew what to expect, so it got all its logistical and inventory ducks in a row. The real question is whether Nintendo can continue this momentum once it has reached all the diehards. I reckon it will keep selling well, but there's caveats.
The comparison with the Switch 1 is challenging. The original was many consumers' gateway to games when we were all stuck at home during the pandemic. Cozy gamers will mobilize in full force when the next Animal Crossing hits, but it likely won't be a success on the level of Animal Crossing: New Horizons.
The big litmus test for the Switch 2's long-term success will be calendar Q4 this year. On the road to the holiday season, Nintendo needs a strong content cadence and to fine-tune its marketing for casual audiences. Nintendo's dev teams have been quiet, so I'm expecting a Nintendo Direct soon to begin drumming hype. There's a little uncertainty still, but I'm optimistic about the Switch 2's long-term potential. If Nintendo nails the holiday season this year, it'll probably nail the whole generation.
For our own review of the Nintendo Switch 2 console, head to this page.
About the author: With over two decades of experience in gaming journalism, Alessio Palumbo has led the gaming vertical at Wccftech since August 2015. He started working at a young age for Italian websites like Everyeye.it, Gamestar.it, Nextgame.it, and Multiplayer.it before kickstarting the indie English-language publication Worlds Factory as its founder and Editor in Chief. In the last decade, he has coordinated the overall output of Wccftech's gaming section, managed PR relations, assigned reviews, produced daily news coverage, edited gaming content as needed, and delivered game reviews. Arguably, his trademark content is the long series of exclusive developer interviews that have been cited by Wikipedia and by the biggest news media and gaming publications. His passion for technology also makes him knowledgeable when it comes to gaming hardware and tech. His favorite genres include RPGs, MMORPGs, and action/adventure games.
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