- 0-20%: Unlikely - Lacks credible sources
- 21-40%: Questionable - Some concerns remain
- 41-60%: Plausible - Reasonable evidence
- 61-80%: Probable - Strong evidence
- 81-100%: Highly Likely - Multiple reliable sources
80%
Probable
Fallout 3 Remastered has long been one of the worst-kept secrets in gaming. Originally revealed via a FTC hearing concerning Xbox’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard, subsequent retail toy listings have repeatedly suggested that the project is actively in the works for PC and modern consoles. While an official announcement from Bethesda has yet to be made, footage of the project is seemingly circulating, as recently revealed by veteran games journalist Jeff Gerstmann.
"In fact, someone else has put in quite a lot of work into a Fallout 3 remake that has yet to officially materialize," the journalist said during the latest episode of The Jeff Gerstmann Show. "And I don't even know if that game is, I assume that that is still happening, but maybe it is dead. Who can say? But I have seen footage of a Fallout 3 remake, so someone somewhere made something."
While the Fallout 3 Remastered footage that Gerstmann saw doesn't explicitly indicate the project is currently in active development, every indication points to the fact that it is. Besides the aforementioned retail leaks - which are historically reliable as they rely on designs provided by developers months, if not years, in advance - Bethesda has pivoted to a franchise-first model following the latest significant wave of layoffs at Xbox, which cut 3,200 jobs.
As Fallout remains among the core franchises both Bethesda and Microsoft are betting their future on, it would be highly improbable to see a Fallout 3 Remastered that has been in development for years get axed, though the industry has witnessed surprising cancellations before.
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