- 0-20%: Unlikely - Lacks credible sources
- 21-40%: Questionable - Some concerns remain
- 41-60%: Plausible - Reasonable evidence
- 61-80%: Probable - Strong evidence
- 81-100%: Highly Likely - Multiple reliable sources
75%
Probable
With yet another price increase for the PlayStation 5 and PlayStation 5 Pro, it is expected that the PlayStation 6 will be considerably more expensive than many expected, edging dangerously close to $1000. However, according to known AMD leaker KeplerL2, a $699 price for the system is still possible despite a bill of materials (the cost of all components) estimated to be above $750 if Sony goes the extra mile to keep the price as low as possible.
"My current BOM (bill of materials) estimate for PS6 is ~$760, so I would say $699 is still possible with a reasonable subsidy," the leaker said on the NeoGAF forums.
This reasonable subsidy, however, is far from guaranteed, looking at the next generation of consoles. "The question is if Sony will even bother now that Xbox is not direct competition anymore." With the very likely more expensive Xbox Project Helix targeting a very different market, this is indeed a valid question.
Asked to clarify about the PlayStation 6's bill of materials estimate, KeplerL2 confirmed that it includes a "1TB Gen5 SSD and no Disk Drive." While the disk drive wouldn't add much to the cost, a bigger SSD definitely would, considering the current prices. The PlayStation 5 Pro's significant price hike (which has pushed hardware sales up in the United States right before it came into effect) is likely due to its 2TB SSD.
A High Price is Not The Only Challenge The PlayStation 6 Will Face
Although the PlayStation 5 faced challenging market conditions when it launched in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic amid component shortages, the PlayStation 6 seems to have it much worse. A potentially high price for the system caused by high prices of SSDs and RAM (which is unlikely to cause a delay beyond early 2028, as it would cost more than paying extra) and general economic uncertainty are also factors that will determine the system's success.
According to Alderon Games founder Matthew Cassells, Sony may have a hard time pushing PlayStation 5 and PlayStation 5 Pro owners to upgrade, which could lead, together with a high asking price, to a long cross-generation period where next-gen games will inevitably be held back by dated previous-generation hardware. And without a cheaper PlayStation 6 "lite" model, Sony's definitely has an uphill battle ahead of itself
About the author: Francesco De Meo has been covering video games and technology since 2012, starting his career at small outlets like Gamersyndrome and GeekSnack. After joining Wccftech gaming section in 2015, he quickly expanded his video gaming coverage with in-depth reporting, interviews with iconic industry figures such as Grasshopper Manufacture founder and No More Heroes creator Goichi "Suda51" Suda, Resident Evil series creator Shinji Mikami, Team NINJA's president and Nioh series director Fumihiko Yasuda, and Silent Hill creator Keiichiro Toyama, reviews and on-the-ground coverage of major industry events such as Gamescom and E3. When he's not reporting or reviewing, Francesco can be found playing the genres he loves most, spending time with his six cats, reading, writing music, playing guitar and drumming for his progressive rock band.
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