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Over the past few weeks, the tech news airwaves have become literally choked with speculation surrounding the production cadence of NVIDIA's latest GPU architecture, dubbed Blackwell. While NVIDIA had already laid a lot of consternation to rest during its recent earnings call, when it confirmed that the architecture's minor design flaws were rectified via specific changes to the photomask, the true scale of the company's oncoming production ramp-up is only now becoming visible, with Morgan Stanley expecting a 3x jump in the Blackwell production volume between Q4'24 and Q1'25.
As our discerning readers would remember, Morgan Stanley had penned an important note on NVIDIA back in September, noting among other things that the company was on course to ship 450,000 units of the Blackwell GPUs in the December-ending quarter, resulting in ~$10 billion in revenue.
At the time, the Wall Street titan had conceded that NVIDIA was still in the process of resolving a few "technical challenges" with its GB200 server racks, positing a qualifier that such issues were a part of a "normal debugging process for new product launches."
NVIDIA $NVDA Blackwell revenue could surpass Hopper as soon as Q1 2025, says Morgan Stanley:
"According to our checks of the GPU testing supply chain, Blackwell chip output should be around 250-300k in Q4 2024, contributing $5-10 billion revenue for NVIDIA, which is still…
— Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly) October 8, 2024
Now, Morgan Stanley is out with a fresh investment note on NVIDIA, where the bank leverages its channel checks to confirm its earlier prognostication of between $5 billion and $10 billion in Blackwell-derived revenue for Q4'24.
However, this time around, Morgan Stanley moves a step further by expounding on its thoughts for NVIDIA's first quarter of the calendar year 2025. Specifically, the Wall Street behemoth believes that NVIDIA will produce between 700,000 and 800,000 units of Blackwell GPUs in Q1'25, which corresponds to a 3x sequential increase in volumes:
"And into 1Q25, we understand that Blackwell chip volume may reach 750k-800k units, up almost 3x from 4Q24."
The bank goes on to note:
"Meanwhile, we expect Hopper volume (including H200 and H20) to be around 1500k units in 4Q24, and gradually ramp down to 1000k units in 1Q25."
Critically, given the fact that the B200 chip is priced at a 60 to 70 percent premium to the H200 chip, Morgan Stanley expects NVIDIA's Blackwell-derived revenues to exceed those related to its Hopper architecture in Q1'25.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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