- 0-20%: Unlikely - Lacks credible sources
- 21-40%: Questionable - Some concerns remain
- 41-60%: Plausible - Reasonable evidence
- 61-80%: Probable - Strong evidence
- 81-100%: Highly Likely - Multiple reliable sources
90%
Highly Likely
This morning, Bloomberg reports that Nintendo is cutting Switch 2 production by more than 30% for this quarter. The original plan was to make 6 million units of the new hybrid console, but Nintendo allegedly revised this down to 4 million units following weaker-than-expected Holiday sales, especially in the United States.
This reduction should not prevent Nintendo from reaching the anticipated goal of 20 million units sold by the end of the fiscal year, which ends later this month. The Nintendo Switch 2 had already sold 17.3 million units as of December 31, 2025, as reported in February, far outpacing the initial sales of the previous Switch console.
Before accelerating hardware production, Nintendo is allegedly waiting to see if demand picks up again following new software releases. One game that's promising in this regard is Pokémon Pokopia, which stunned everyone with a critical reception that turned out to be the best ever for any Pokémon game, thanks to an average Metacritic score of 90/100, and strong debut sales (2.2 million units in the first four days). Pokopia also earned strong praise from resident Nintendo expert Nathan Birch, who rated it 9 out of 10:
Pokémon Pokopia isn't just possibly the best spinoff this series has ever seen, it also captures the spirit and fulfillment of those classic early entries in the franchise better than anything that's come our way in some years. This game is mechanically sound, technically rock-solid, and has a pinch of genuine creative inspiration and joy that you don't always get from modern Pokémon titles. While the game may start a bit slow for some tastes, I think most folks who give Pokopia a chance will find they Kanto get enough.
The next big Nintendo Switch 2 exclusive, Yoshi and the Mysterious Book, is due to launch on May 21, 2026.
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