Analysts Decrease Apple’s Sales Estimates For FY18 As Talk Of A ‘Super-Cycle’ Dies Down

This is not investment advice. The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. has a disclosure and ethics policy.

As we head into Apple's quarterly earnings season, Wall Street's finally learned some sense. The hype frenzy witnessed prior to the iPhone X is fading away. Investors got greedy as banks floated around ideas of Cupertino selling even more iPhones than it two years back. The company's iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus performed very well. They were unmatched by their successors, with Apple still unable to perform similarly in terms of units sold. Now, Bloomberg reports some interesting conjecture as well.

 Analysts Downgrade Apple's Total iPhone Shipment Estimates For FY2018 By 6 Billion; Talk Of A Super-Cycle Dies Down At Wall Street

If we're honest at this point, Apple's iPhone X was way more hyped than its popular post launch. The rumor mill piqued in interest when early rumors of virtual fingerprint recognition surfaced. Then, supply chain consensus became common over facial recognition. The feature was fresh in public minds as 9to5Mac published key details on Face ID. But now that the bubble's gone, analysts have come back to reality.

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Rumors of an iPhone 'Super-Cycle' popped up when Apple refused to change the iPhone lineup's form in three years - and still dared to call devices honest upgrades. Sure, we got 3D Touch, but before the iPhone X, all Cupertino did was keep up with Android. At least in terms of mass market upgrades. Now, Apple will beat its 2015 sales by just a hairline, according to Bloomberg's analysis.

Its data reveals slight decreases in average analyst estimates for the number of iPhones sold this fiscal. Keep in mind that Apple's an early bird. Cupertino's 2018 starts in September and it's had plenty of times to sell a vast chunk of iPhones. These however, are not enough to match optimistic estimates of 247 million for the year. Therefore, analysts as a whole have decreased their earlier projections by a modest 8 million, down to 239 million iPhones sold in 2018,

As the iPhone X is Apple's most expensive to date, analysts and investor will look at average sales price this quarter, instead of units sold. After all, less units at a higher price can mark for increase in profits. And Face ID's primary function on the iPhone X is to justify the smartphone's $1,000 price point. After all, OLED's been around on Android for years. "We don't think F18 will be a 'supercycle' year," according to UBS. Right now, Apple's problem is the remaining time in its smartphone cow. Maybe iPads will be the answer. Thoughts? Let us know what you think in the comments section below and stay tuned. We'll keep you updated on the latest.

News Source: Bloomberg

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