- 0-20%: Unlikely - Lacks credible sources
- 21-40%: Questionable - Some concerns remain
- 41-60%: Plausible - Reasonable evidence
- 61-80%: Probable - Strong evidence
- 81-100%: Highly Likely - Multiple reliable sources
60%
Plausible
The word "cost" seems to be everywhere these days, especially in the consumer electronics sphere, where it's on the verge of adopting the hallowed status of an axiom. And worryingly, even Apple appears vulnerable now, particularly if the latest Weibo-sourced tidbit on the base iPhone 17's production lines pans out.
Apple had previously reduced some base iPhone 17 production lines by 15 percent, but has since then escalated that curtailment to a whopping 33 percent amid escalating cost pressures
According to a machine-translated version of the most recent Weibo post by the tipster Fixed Focus Digital, Apple has curtailed some base iPhone 17 production lines by as much as a third of their capacity after previously decelerating production by around 15 percent on those lines.
This suggests that Apple is struggling to balance the books on the base version of the iPhone 17, which starts at $799 in the US and where Apple's margins are quite thin.
This comes as memory prices have been on a tear lately, with the contract prices for a 12GB LPDDR5X module rising by 3x since Q1 2025 to hit $120 towards the tail-end of Q1 2026 and into Q2 2026. What's more, these contract prices have increased by a whopping $68.8 since the start of the year, and are currently hovering at around $145. Meanwhile, the contract price for a 256GB NAND module is now on course to hit $51 by Q3.
Of course, we published an analysis earlier this week, whereby we demonstrated that NAND costs are expected to make up the biggest chunk of the Bill of Materials (BOM) for the upcoming iPhone 18 Pro Max (1TB). As such, these NAND costs are now estimated at around $250, which is equivalent to $0.24 per GB.
Coming back, we would still urge our readers to take this report of a production curtailment with a pinch of salt until such reports emerge from multiple vectors, which should add to the authenticity of the underlying thesis.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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