Microsoft revealed the official pricing, release date, and specs of both its Xbox Series consoles yesterday. The 12TF, 4K-focused Series X will launch November 10th at $499, while the 4TF, 'QuadHD' Series S will be available on the same day for $299.
This morning, Ampere Analysis Head of Games Research Piers Harding-Rolls published an updated forecast with a projected sales increase that is largely due to the Xbox Series S.
[...] releasing two quite different products at the start of a generation is a significant change. It results in a more complex selling and marketing proposition, alongside all the subscription services and All Access offers, but an expected improvement in market share is a reasonable price to pay. The Xbox Series S at $299 sits below the pricing of the existing Xbox One X, so we expect this product to be removed from the line-up and Series S will offer more value to the consumer while also reducing Microsoft’s manufacturing cost base. There is still a role for a sub $199 Xbox One S product which will play most upcoming games anyway and will give Microsoft maximum flexibility when addressing a wide audience of potential console gamers. This does however leave Microsoft with less flexibility to inject sales momentum mid-cycle, but as the console market is all about intial momentum and keeping it, it is the right choice to load all its competitive capability at the front end of the cycle.
What will Xbox Series S’ impact be?
In terms of the outlook for next-gen Xbox sales, the key assumptions are as follows:
- Some sales of Xbox Series X will drop to the cheaper Xbox Series S
- A portion of Xbox One sales will transfer to Xbox Series S and result in a more rapid transition to next-gen (and pull forward some sales from later in the cycle)
- Some more Xbox One S/X users will be convinced to upgrade at this lower price point compared to the Xbox Series X (expected at $499)
As you can see below, Ampere Analysis is now forecasting 3.9 million Xbox Series consoles sold by the end of this year, which will become 13.5 in 2021, 23.7 in 2022, 34.5 in 2023, and 44.3 in 2024.
By comparison, the previous forecast released back in June had Microsoft's next-gen consoles at 3.3 million in 2020, 12 in 2021, 21 in 2022, 30 in 2023, and 37 in 2024.
It's interesting to note that Ampere Analysis also upgraded Sony's PlayStation 5 forecast slightly in this latest report. It previously had PS5 sales at 4.6 million units this year, going up to 17 in 2021, 33 in 2022, 50 in 2023 and 66 in 2024. The latest forecast puts a slightly rosier picture with 5 million units sold in 2020, 17.9 in 2021, 33.5 in 2022, 50.2 in 2023, and 67.3 in 2024.
That said, did the Xbox Series S reveal increase the likelihood of your purchase of an Xbox Series console in the upcoming generation of hardware? Vote in the poll below and let us know your opinion in the comments.
About the author: With over two decades of experience in gaming journalism, Alessio Palumbo has led the gaming vertical at Wccftech since August 2015. He started working at a young age for Italian websites like Everyeye.it, Gamestar.it, Nextgame.it, and Multiplayer.it before kickstarting the indie English-language publication Worlds Factory as its founder and Editor in Chief. In the last decade, he has coordinated the overall output of Wccftech's gaming section, managed PR relations, assigned reviews, produced daily news coverage, edited gaming content as needed, and delivered game reviews. Arguably, his trademark content is the long series of exclusive developer interviews that have been cited by Wikipedia and by the biggest news media and gaming publications. His passion for technology also makes him knowledgeable when it comes to gaming hardware and tech. His favorite genres include RPGs, MMORPGs, and action/adventure games.
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