Memory shortages aren't looking to slow down anytime soon, and now, according to Counterpoint Research, the prospect of prices returning to normal is gloomy.
Memory Shortages Could Last Up To H2 2027, And They Could Extend Even Further If Supply Remains Tight
There is no definite timeline for when we can expect DRAM shortages to ease, but the only way to predict it is by looking at how demand is evolving over time. And, when you look at the current pace of the AI infrastructure buildout, you'll realize that memory demand isn't slowing down anytime soon, which is why Counterpoint Research says that shortages could last until H2 2027, and even beyond, depending upon how the supply-demand gap changes. According to their report (via Jukan), the pricing of memory products has risen by more than 180%, indicating that shortages are becoming more severe.
We have discussed the driving factors behind rising DRAM demand several times in the past, but a significant portion of it stems from hyperscaler demand, which targets not only modern-day DRAM products but also legacy ones such as DDR4 modules. Counterpoint notes that memory shortages are expected to be pushed into H2 2027, and while this timeline aligns with past reports, it depends on how memory suppliers plan to increase production.
Memory demand has been opened up from multiple fronts, with a few prominent ones being hyperscalers, ASIC manufacturers, GPU manufacturers, and, of course, the consumer segment. However, since the second half of last year, demand from the AI sector has surpassed that from every other customer segment, which is why, for DRAM suppliers in particular, it is the obvious choice to serve a customer base with both higher order volume and profit margins.
For now, it is best to factor in memory shortages lasting several quarters ahead, and at the same time, supply constraints will become much more aggressive, especially as we shift to the next generation of AI architectures, where memory elements are becoming increasingly important.
About the author: Muhammad Zuhair is a hardware and technology reporter for Wccftech, specializing in the semiconductor industry and the complex interplay between technology, manufacturing, and geopolitics. His coverage focuses on the corporate strategies and technological roadmaps of industry giants like TSMC, NVIDIA, Samsung, and Intel. Zuhair's expertise lies in deconstructing complex topics such as fabrication nodes (e.g., 2nm process), the economic impact of policies like the CHIPS Act, and the strategic development of AI infrastructure from NVIDIA, AMD and Intel.
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