2025 appeared to end on a promising note for the PC industry, with decent progress across all segments, including CPUs and GPUs. However, as Q4 approached, significant trouble began to emerge for gamers. This time, the AI frenzy brought it in, and we'll discuss how far ahead it is; but for now, it's essential to realize that the industry is undergoing a 'DRAM supercycle,' which appears to be gobbling up consumer memory and causing large-scale shortages.
The Root Cause: How AI Data Centers Are Cannibalizing Consumer DRAM in 2026
The AI sector is in dire need of compute power, and with that, manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD are giving their all to ensure that demand is fulfilled. One way to achieve this is by advancing architectures, which is why AI chip manufacturers are operating on an annual product cadence. Interestingly, out of all the elements of a chip that are being upgraded with each iteration, such as process node, chip layout, and designs, HBM (high-bandwidth memory) has played a significant role. To develop frontier models like GPT-5.2, workloads need a place to store model weights, and for that, HBM is required.
Now, the reason we mention HBM here is that it has been the dominant source of DRAM consumption over the past few months. According to estimates, producing 1 bit of HBM consumes approximately 300% (3 times) the wafer capacity required to produce 1 bit of DDR5. Unlike DDR5, HBM has lower yields because it requires complex packaging, so more DRAM wafers would be needed to produce HBM modules at a comparable rate to consumer memory.
Chip manufacturers cannot ignore the importance of HBM modules, which is why development around the technology has been consistent, with iterations over the years, from HBM3 to HBM3E, and now to next-generation HBM4/4E. More importantly, for suppliers like Samsung and SK hynix, it is more profitable to dedicate their production lines to AI customers, given that HBM contract prices are soaring rapidly and producers are in dire need to capitalize on the demand.
Apart from just HBM, data centers also require other DRAM products, such as DDR5 RDIMMs for server CPUs and MCRDIMMs/MRDIMMs to address the memory bandwidth bottleneck. And given the scale of data center development, the demand for DRAM has grown significantly, to the point that it is reported that AI will consume 20% of total DRAM production in 2026, and this figure could increase further as AI buildout scales.
The OEM Squeeze: Why Are Lenovo, Dell, ASUS & Others Looking to Raise Prices?
Given how severely constrained DRAM production lines are, PC manufacturers are struggling to secure capacity, ultimately forcing them to take drastic measures. Vendors like Lenovo have previously relied on their DRAM inventory to sustain market pricing; however, given that shortages are expected to continue for several quarters ahead, manufacturers have no choice but to raise product prices.
One of the largest PC suppliers, Dell, was reported to be planning a price hike that could raise hardware costs by hundreds of dollars. Interestingly, for consumers opting for higher memory configurations, this would now require a significant price increase. Here were the price increases that were reported across a variety of products:
- $130–$230 increase for Dell Pro and Pro Max notebooks and desktops configured with 32 GB of memory
- $520–$765 increase for systems configured with 128 GB of memory
- $55–$135 increase for configurations with a 1 TB SSD
- $66 increase for AI laptops equipped with an NVIDIA RTX PRO 500 Blackwell GPU (6 GB)
- $530 increase for AI laptops equipped with an NVIDIA RTX PRO 500 Blackwell GPU (24 GB)
Similarly, companies like ASUS and Acer were also reported to be bumping up PC pricing to cope with memory shortages, and according to Acer's Chairman, Jason Chen, the BoM (Bill of Materials) for several products within Acer's portfolio has risen dramatically, leaving no choice but to increase prices to ensure consistent supply. Small-scale manufacturers like Framework are also looking to increase the cost of upgrading RAM on existing configurations, indicating a widespread "price hike" wave approaching gamers.
We managed to speak with one of the largest system integrators, MAINGEAR, about how memory shortages are affecting the supply chain. According to CEO Wallace Santos, consumers shouldn't wait for their PC upgrades, as the situation is expected to deteriorate further in 2026. Here's what he specifically disclosed:
We’ve already seen DRAM prices skyrocket due to the shortages and are holding off those price changes for our customers as long as we can. For consumers that are interested in getting a new PC or upgrading their current system’s GPU, SSD or RAM, they should consider shopping now and looking for offerings that have not seen price increases yet.
This anecdotal squeeze has now materialized into hard market data. In Q1 2026 alone, the industry saw massive baseline jumps, with consumer RAM prices inflating by up to 110% and SSDs surging by 147%, triggering a desperate stockpiling race among PC manufacturers.
Estimates from market researcher IDC also indicate that memory prices will be a significant concern for the PC industry, which is why shipments are expected to decline by 4.9% in the coming year. As for PC manufacturers, they are left with three of the following options on how to deal with memory shortages:
- Increase Pricing: Raise consumer product prices to offset the higher costs of purchasing DRAM under current contract rates.
- Modify Configurations: Reduce memory specifications, such as sticking to 8 GB as a baseline for mid-range laptops instead of the recommended 16 GB, to spread available DRAM across more units.
- Delay Product Launches: Postpone the release of new products or downsize premium lineups until supply conditions improve. We have already seen this with NVIDIA's RTX 50 SUPER GPUs.
The situation is becoming increasingly tense for manufacturers, and since DRAM shortages aren't expected to improve in the near future, we can only expect trouble for gamers moving forward.
Should You Upgrade RAM Now? Here are the Best Strategies for Gamers During the Shortage
This is probably the most essential part of this coverage, which discusses how PC gamers should react to the ongoing shortages. The first and foremost strategy is not to succumb to 'FOMO' when purchasing RAM, especially if you are upgrading your existing RAM capacity. Gamers currently utilizing 8 GB or 16 GB memory modules should stick with them for a few months until we navigate our way out of these shortages. Jumping on RAM upgrades at this point would mean 'splurging extra' on upgrades that could wait.
While this might sound unusual, purchasing a pre-built PC might be the best option right now if you are looking for a complete system, as they are currently retailing for prices that haven't factored in memory shortages. Large-scale OEMs will offer attractive pre-built PCs with decent RAM configurations, which could be one of the options gamers consider if building a custom PC isn't a priority.
If the above options don't sound like something for you, another route could be looking towards the used DDR5/DDR4 memory markets, since, unlike GPUs, RAM sticks are much more durable, and it's pretty hard to sell counterfeit modules, unless, of course, you don't test them out. In this way, you could probably negotiate for a price that is an improvement from what's available in the retail markets, but expecting to get a bargain would be difficult, given how mainstream the topic 'memory shortage' has become.
The first sign of DDR5 memory shortages cooling down might be here, as several modules on Amazon and Newegg are seeing noticeable price drops, up to 20% from their highs. While there isn't a specific reason for the discount, it is speculated that the panic-induced sell-off in the memory industry following the release of Google's TurboQuant algorithm might be the reason consumer RAM prices dropped.
We have already discussed TurboQuant in a previous post; it is a KV cache compression algorithm that, in summary, reduces memory requirements in AI workloads by up to 6x. The paper, released by Google, suggested that there isn't a noticeable difference in long-context workload once the compression layer is applied, implying that the world won't need memory as desperately as it does right now, but many experts have denied this claim.
Alternative Supply Chains & Fab Expansion Realities
Micron's Supply Strategy & US Fab Buildouts
In our exclusive talk with Micron's VP on the occasion of CES 2026, we discussed how memory shortages are expected to pan out moving ahead, and whether the buildout of DRAM fabs could bring a drastic improvement to the supply situation. The entire talk focused on questions that a general consumer has towards these DRAM shortages, and here is the summary of the talk:
- Micron hasn't exited the consumer business; it still meets demand from OEM partners, which accounts for a significant portion of the company's market share.
- Fab buildouts, such as those in Idaho, won't have a meaningful impact by 2028, given the time required to set up plants and bring in newer production lines.
- Micron welcomes competition from companies like China's CXMT and is not influenced by Chinese memory suppliers at this time.
The Rise of CXMT and Chinese Memory Adoption
It appears that there's a new prospect opening up for client OEMs in the market, which is to source DDR5 modules from Chinese memory suppliers like CXMT. In an extensive report, we discussed how adopting partners other than the 'Big 3' could entail massive overhead in validation and integration, but it seems companies like HP, Dell, Acer, and ASUS are willing to take the chance.
The more important point to wait for is whether Chinese memory suppliers intend to offer modules at prices below the current DDR5 spot prices, or, if not, whether they are willing to commit to higher volumes for OEMs.
Conclusion: We Have Combated Crypto-Mining & COVID-19 Shortages, We'll Pass Through AI as Well
Estimates suggest that the memory shortages could persist until 2027 or even 2028, but current predictions are uncertain due to the fluctuating supply chain dynamics. Suppliers are aggressively mobilizing capital to counter this. SK hynix has officially answered the HBM shortage by dedicating its massive Cheongju Technopolis M15X mega-fab—the size of 32 soccer fields—entirely to next-generation memory production.
This hub page will serve as your go-to source for information about the memory situation. As we conclude, it's essential to stay informed and united in such challenging times, and to understand how the PC market is responding to DRAM shortages to make the wisest purchasing decisions.
