Too much of anything can be detrimental, even success. This is something that Apple is now finding out, courtesy of the rip-roaring demand for the base iPhone 17 model.
Over the past few days, we've been intermittently updating our readers on the demand profile of various iPhone 17 models by leveraging the lead times metric across various geographical locations. The emerging consensus is now coalescing around a simple conclusion: the demand for the base variant remains exceptionally high out of all iPhone 17 models.
For instance, Bank of America (BofA) analyst, Wamsi Mohan, highlighted in a recent investment note that "our tracking of iPhone ship dates on Apple’s own website, and various carrier websites, indicates that as of Sep 22nd, ship time (in days) for the iPhone 17 (18 days) are more extended vs last year’s iPhone 16 (10 days)." He went on to add that "the ship dates for the iPhone 17 are the highest in China, with demand likely driven by 1) 15% government subsidy on electronics for which the iPhone 17 base variant is eligible and 2) unavailability of iPhone Air in China as carriers await regulatory approval."
In hindsight, this is a logical outcome. After all, the base variant of the iPhone 17 now supports Pro-level features:
- A 120Hz ProMotion display with a variable refresh rate for improved battery performance.
- A new 48-megapixel ultrawide camera lens vs. a 12-megapixel ultrawide lens on the base iPhone 16.
- A 48-megapixel main camera that provides 2x optical-quality telephoto zoom capabilities.
- An 18-megapixel selfie camera vs. a 12-megapixel one on the base iPhone 16.
- Ramped up base storage of 256GB.
- The same retail price of $799 as the base iPhone 16.
UBS Analyst David Vogt: "UBS Evidence Lab Data That Tracks iPhone Availability Across 30 Geographies Suggests Elevated YoY Wait Times For The Base Across Key End Markets, But Relatively Muted Demand For The Other Three Models."
In a new investment note out today, UBS analyst David Vogt has raised some interesting points:
- Lead times data from UBS Evidence Lab suggests "elevated" demand for the base iPhone 17 but "relatively muted" demand for the other three variants.
- Media reports indicate that Apple suppliers are increasing the production of the base iPhone 17, though "main adjustments to iPhone builds typically begin in November onwards."
- Ex-China, wait times for the Pro and Pro Max models are relatively consistent year-over-year, and flat to down for the Air vs. the 16 Plus.
- This time around, the iPhone 17 Air and Pro models have experienced a price increase, but the base iPhone 17 has endured an implied price cut due to the revamped base storage capacity.
- When you combine these pricing dynamics with the increased demand for the base iPhone 17, Apple's Average Selling Price (ASP) "upside" appears limited.
This suggests that Apple might end up being a victim of its own success with the base iPhone 17 model. Do you agree with this conclusion? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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