As TSMC's global foundry share remains firmly perched on a perennial upward ramp, one analyst now sees a viable pathway for the Taiwanese giant to nearly quadruple its AI revenue before the end of the ongoing decade.
As we reported recently, TSMC is expected to corner a whopping 75 percent of the global foundry market in 2026, boosted by its phenomenal yields for the cutting-edge 2nm node process. This early lead has allowed TSMC to virtually lock in it's top-notch customers such as NVIDIA, Apple, and AMD, to the detriment of Samsung and Intel.
Now, Needham analyst Charles Shi has raised his price target for TSMC shares from $225 to $270, while reiterating an overall 'Buy' rating.
As per Needham's newly launched AI wafer demand model for TSMC, the Taiwanese giant's total revenues are now expected to increase from around $114 billion in 2025 to $130 billion in 2026, and $160 billion in 2027.
Moreover, TSMC's AI-focused revenue can feasibly increase from $26 billion in 2025 to $33 billion in 2026, $46 billion in 2027, and a whopping $90 billion in 2029, corresponding to a nearly 4x increase relative to TSMC's baseline AI revenue for the ongoing calendar year.
Notice the inflection after 2027. The Needham analyst believes this acceleration would primarily materialize from the production ramp-up of NVIDIA's next-gen Rubin Ultra GPU platform.
Shi also sees TSMC's CapEx increasing from around $40 billion in the ongoing calendar year to $45 billion in 2026, and $50 billion in 2027. The chip fabrication powerhouse's CapEx related to HBM packaging should also accelerate in 2027 ahead of Rubin Ultra's expected launch in 2028.
This comes as TSMC's influx of talent at its plants in Taiwan has boosted real estate prices not just in close vicinity to those plants but throughout the length and breadth of the island nation, as per social media anecdotes we extensively parsed recently.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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