80%
Probable
Website MP1st has discovered new Divinity trademarks registered today in Europe. Not only is it a strong suggestion that Larian Studios will unveil a new installment in the series very soon, likely in two days at The Game Awards 2025, but it also appears to solve the mystery of the demonic statue teased by Geoff Keighley and the TGA team via social media. The aforementioned trademarks include a few logos, such as the Divinity one above, and two more, such as the following design:
Well, that's what the demonic statue (which is physically located in the Mojave Desert) looks like at night:
A new Divinity game was always the safest bet once Larian Studios announced that it was not going forward with Baldur's Gate 4 despite the enormous success of the third installment. The developer would want to reap the profits of future games all on its own, so it would need to own the intellectual property of its next games. Other than a science fiction RTS title titled The L.E.D. Wars and released in 1997, though, Larian only ever made Divinity games. It was either another installment of their acclaimed cRPG franchise or a brand-new IP, and the latter would always carry a degree of risk. Besides, Original Sin 2 sold well and received almost as much acclaim from critics and fans as Baldur's Gate 3.
An announcement so early is certainly a bit of a surprise, though. Less than a year ago, Larian Studios CEO Swen Vincke said that their next project would be very big, but also added that it needed 'a lot more time' in the proverbial oven. Just a bit earlier, in October 2024, Vincke had dropped a hint that it would take 'another five years' before they could return to an award event and win more prizes after Baldur's Gate 3, which fans took to mean that the studio might target a launch in 2029.
That said, considering their track record, Larian revealed Baldur's Gate 3 in June 2019, more than four years before its final launch date of August 3, 2023. So, the timeline fits. An early access release appears to be very likely as well: all three of the studio's most recent games launched first on early access and then gradually made their way to version 1.0.
So, perhaps early access could launch in 2027, with a tentative late 2029 release window. That's mere speculation for now, though. We may learn more in just two days.
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