Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are now entering into the 'production expansion' timeline, but estimates suggest that any capacity increase won't help with the memory shortages for consumers.
Memory Manufacturers Are Desperate to Address Shortages, To Ensure That They Don't Miss Out on the Supercycle
Memory shortages have now entered a phase in which sellers dominate, as demand has outpaced supply by a wide margin. Given the AI buildout, companies are rushing to secure LTAs with the likes of Micron, and at the same time, demand from the consumer sector isn't slowing down, which means the only possible solution for suppliers is to expand production. Now, according to WSJ and Korean media reports, memory manufacturers have pursued capacity expansion much more aggressively, with plans to invest 'hundreds of billions' into newer projects.
We'll talk about Micron first, given that, at least on paper, the firm has the largest capital investment plans. The WSJ reports that the American DRAM manufacturer plans to spend $200 billion on new projects, including a 450-acre campus in Boise. With the Boise fab alone, Micron plans to build the US's largest cleanroom facility, and while we are unaware of the total output capacity, it is reported that there will be two fabs. Our best estimate is that the Boise plants alone could produce up to 150K-200K WPM, based on the 600,000-square-foot cleanroom. This is a 40% increase over Micron's current global total output.
Apart from Boise, Micron's New York facilty is the state's biggest-ever private investment, scaling up to a whopping $100 billion, with plans to add four 600,000-square-foot cleanrooms, and you can only imagine the increase in DRAM WPM they will bring. However, the important aspect about these commitments is when they could materialize into actual, useful production. And this is where things become interesting. The Boise fab (both plants) will ramp up to full output by H2 2027, while the NY project will be in full force by 2045 (this includes four plants).
A recent report by Chosun Biz said Korean memory suppliers are advancing their production timelines to "proactively capitalize on the supercycle." SK hynix plans to initiate test runs with its Yongin fab this month or next, and for those unaware, the Yongin project is much more ambitious than what Micron is doing. The Korean chip giant plans to invest a total of $85 billion in the site, and the first fab in Yongin will be operational by February-March, ahead of its original May timeline.
At the same time, Samsung is also expanding its Pyeongtaek P4 plans, with the completion timeline brought forward to Q4 2026 rather than the first quarter of next year. The P4 fab will deliver meaningful output of 100K-120K WPM, suggesting the supply situation will improve significantly moving into 2027, at least based on expansion plans. Now, the reason why most of this capacity won't benefit consumers on a larger-scale is something that we will talk about next.
The role of DRAM in AI-focused products is evolving dramatically in today's world, especially with inference. One prime example for this is how LPDDR, a standard that was traditionally targeted towards consumer products, is now seeing immense adoption in NVIDIA's rack-scale offerings. Similarly, given that with agentic AI, memory bandwidth is a critical bottleneck, manufacturers are rushing to integrate superior HBM technologies, SOCAMM modules and much more, which shows that the above-mentioned DRAM capacity increase would directly address the rise in demand from the AI sector.
We do hope that the memory situation on the consumer front eases of moving ahead, but considering how benefiting the AI sector is right now for DRAM manufacturers, it appears that large portion of current/future capacity would be allocated towards the buildout. This means that for consumers, memory shortages aren't slowing down anytime soon.
About the author: Muhammad Zuhair is a hardware and technology reporter for Wccftech, specializing in the semiconductor industry and the complex interplay between technology, manufacturing, and geopolitics. His coverage focuses on the corporate strategies and technological roadmaps of industry giants like TSMC, NVIDIA, Samsung, and Intel. Zuhair's expertise lies in deconstructing complex topics such as fabrication nodes (e.g., 2nm process), the economic impact of policies like the CHIPS Act, and the strategic development of AI infrastructure from NVIDIA, AMD and Intel.
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