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In what is turning out to be the technology sector's "most important" event in years, at least according to the latest commentary from Wedbush Securities, NVIDIA is slated to report its earnings for the second quarter of its fiscal year 2025 on the 28th of August. And, investors are predictably anxious, especially given the persistent rumors around the GPU manufacturer's supposed struggles with achieving the mainstream production cadence of its new Blackwell architecture.
Melius on $NVDA: 'Shares Could March Towards Our $160 Target Pretty Quickly'
"Training Still Strong: Yes, we were concerned when we first heard about issues with the new Blackwell chips in the supply chain and from customers—that included commentary around a 3-month delay due to…
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) August 23, 2024
Today, Melius Research has added a bit of color to the ongoing monotony of rumors and counter-rumors surrounding NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU architecture.
As per unverified reports, NVIDIA's new architecture supposedly suffers from a design flaw related to its "interconnect" technique. For its part, NVIDIA continues to deny the impression of any production upheaval. This, however, has not stopped analysts from incorporating a possible delay in Blackwell shipments within their respective theses for NVIDIA shares.
Coming back, Melius Research concedes that its analysts were concerned when they first heard of a possible delay in Blackwell shipments:
"Yes, we were concerned when we first heard about issues with the new Blackwell chips in the supply chain and from customers — that included commentary around a 3-month delay due to potential overheating, a design issue, and some packaging issues."
Nonetheless, the research house believes that this delay, even if it materializes, does not pose a significant threat to NVIDIA's bullish thesis, especially as the demand for training LLMs remains robust. Melius Research does flag the slow ramp-up of inference demand as a possible point of concern in the future.
Moreover, according to the research house, any Blackwell-related sales deficit will be overcompensated by the rip-roaring demand for NVIDIA's H100 and H200 series GPUs:
"Nvidia's sales of H100s and H200s seem to be benefiting from brisk efforts at Meta to train Llama 4, OpenAI for GPT-5, and (the remaining) well-funded labs. When training is brisk —you need Nvidia."
Interestingly, there appears to be a consensus around the Hopper architecture's strength on Wall Street. Just yesterday, Rosenblatt and KeyBanc reiterated their conviction regarding this view by penning dedicated investment notes.
Melius Research then tries to temper expectations by noting that even though a Triple Lindy - an allusion to Rodney Dangerfield's iconic swimming dive in the 1986 comedy 'Back to School' that involved three springboards - is certainly possible, such an outcome is not necessary in the greater scheme of things.
To achieve a Triple Lindy, NVIDIA will have to "beat F2Q25 by $2B, guide up F3Q25 by $2B q/q, and say enough to imply that F4Q25 grows q/q by another ~$2B. Nvidia basically did this last quarter with one of the best conference calls we've ever heard."
Critically, Melius Research concedes that it is hearing muted "whispers" heading into the earnings announcement next week, which only serves to moderate the odds of a Triple Lindy.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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