The increase in DRAM prices resulting from the shortage will partially account for the decline in global smartphone chipset shipments in 2026, according to research firm Counterpoint Research, with the latest data showing MediaTek will retain its position as the dominant player. Thankfully, despite the volume reduction, SoC revenue is set to grow in double digits for this year, as every one in three smartphones shipped in 2026 is expected to be a premium device. Apple and Qualcomm are expected to benefit greatly from higher-priced handset shipments.
Overall smartphone chipset shipments to witness a 7% decline, but research firm says a double-digit revenue growth is to be expected; Apple, Qualcomm to benefit from the ‘premiumization trend’
As we move towards the launch of 2nm chipsets, MediaTek, Apple, and Qualcomm are expected to focus on architectural improvements to their SoCs, along with cache increases that will allow all three companies to introduce their best silicon yet. Samsung has already unveiled the world’s first 2nm GAA chipset, the Exynos 2600, which should allow for the Korean firm to gain some traction as it looks to cover its losses.
Even though MediaTek has been reported to be hit the hardest out of all chipset manufacturers because more than half of its quarterly revenue comes to SoC shipments, Counterpoint Research believes that the Taiwanese fabless semiconductor manufacturer will still retain a healthy global market share of 34 percent, down from 34.4 percent (various figures are listed below):
- MediaTek - 34.4 percent in 2025, declined to 34 percent in 2026
- Qualcomm - 25.1 percent in 2025, declined to 24.7 percent in 2026
- Apple - 18.3 percent in 2025, declined to 18.1 percent in 2026
- Samsung - 11.2 percent in 2025, declined to 12.1 percent in 2026
Like MediaTek, Apple and Qualcomm are also expected to witness a decline, but both firms are in a better position because of the ongoing ‘premiumization trend,’ where consumers upgrade to top-end devices simply because it’s an iPhone or it is equipped with a Snapdragon silicon. Also, the DRAM crisis might contribute to lower chipset shipments, but Counterpoint Research’s senior analyst Soumen Mandal has said that rising memory prices will be one of the reasons for the SoC’s double-digit revenue growth.
“Despite near-term shipment pressures, we expect the smartphone SoC market to deliver double-digit revenue growth in 2026. This growth will be driven by continued premiumization, higher memory prices, and the rapid adoption of AI-enabled features across smartphones.”
Despite Apple reportedly securing more than half of the initial 2nm supply from TSMC for its A20 and A20 Pro, MediaTek had announced the successful tape-out of its own 2nm SoC, the Dimensity 9600. The company isn’t expected to introduce its in-house CPU cores this year, sticking with ARM’s designs, which is one reason why MediaTek can price its flagship silicon more competitively than Qualcomm. Keeping the rising DRAM and NAND flash prices in mind, we expect several smartphone makers to adopt the Dimensity 9600 in their flagships if it means lowering their total components expenditure.
About the author: Omar Sohail is a reporter and analyst for Wccftech's mobile section, specializing in the technology and business of the mobile industry. His expertise lies in the intricate hardware supply chain, covering developments in semiconductor manufacturing, chip lithography, and camera sensor technology.
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