Intel bet its own house and then staked the entire neighborhood, for good measure, on its next-gen 18A process. While there are increasing signs that the process is finally close to delivering on the associated hype, one analyst urges continued patience and caution when it comes to drawing early conclusions.
To wit, KeyBanc now believes that the yields on Intel's 18A process have reached 55 percent, which represents a 5 percent quarter-on-quarter improvement.
Critically, Intel's 18A yields have already surpassed Samsung's SF2 yields, and are now close to achieving parity with TSMC's yields on its bespoke 2nm process.
Bear in mind that Intel's upcoming 18A process is deemed largely compatible with TSMC's next-gen 2nm node process.
What's more, KeyBanc thinks Intel's 18A yields will hit 70 percent by the fourth quarter of 2025.
Meanwhile, Wells Fargo is out with a cautionary note on Intel today, boldly declaring that "it’s still too early to underwrite a full turnaround."
Wells Fargo expects Intel to give a "net-positive" update at its Q2 earnings call on the yield progression of its 18A process, which is critical for its foundry division to attain breakeven status by 2027, ensuring a sustainable revitalization of the company's overall business momentum in the process.
Nonetheless, Wells Fargo notes with trepidation the still-unclear launch timing of the 18A-based Diamond Rapids Xeon CPUs.
While the firm thinks that the 18A-based Panther Lake CPUs will launch by the end of 2025, their volume ramp will remain a "1H26 story," as per Wells Fargo's current assessment.
Intel announced at the recent 2025 Symposium on VLSI Technology and Circuits that its 18A process, which will power the upcoming Panther Lake CPUs and Clearwater Forest E-Core-only Xeon servers, will offer 30 percent more density scaling as compared to the current-gen Intel 3 process, while providing 25 percent higher frequency at ISO and 36 percent lower power consumption at the same frequency.
Wells Fargo also sees AMD continuing to gain market share at the expense of Intel "through 2H25 and into CY26," as the ascendant chipmaker taps into its 2nm-based Zen 6 EPYC platform.
As such, Intel is facing a dual squeeze on the client computing side from AMD- and ARM-based products, as per Wells Fargo's assessment.
On the financial side of things, Wells Fargo expects Intel's gross margins to remain depressed, eschewing a sustainable recovery amid competitive headwinds emanating from the client and server segments.
As such, the firm has pegged a $22 price target on Intel's shares, which is commensurate with its current stock price.
Of course, the current state of things at Intel is a huge test for its incumbent CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, who has repeatedly acknowledged that the chipmaker is severely behind in several critical areas.
Tan does hope to transition Intel to an "engineering-focused" company, with the 14A process providing the requisite depth for the chipmaker's foundry division to transform into a true contract manufacturer at par with TSMC.
But first, Intel has to stabilize its 18A process. And, a rack-scale offering will help it better compete against the likes of NVIDIA and AMD.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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