Guggenheim: “We Believe Tesla Is Competing With One Hand Tied Behind Its Back In China With Respect To FSD”

Rohail Saleem

This is not investment advice. The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Wccftech.com has a disclosure and ethics policy.

Tesla has started rolling out scaled-down features of its FSD tech in China, inarguably the largest EV market in the world. However, one Wall Street investment bank believes such features are increasingly "par for the course" in the country.

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To wit, Tesla has now rolled out a software update in China, enabling enhanced driver assistance on city roads and an updated package of local maps. This aligns with a recent Bloomberg report which posited that Tesla would roll out driver assistance features that are similar to its FSD in China over the coming days.

Yet, Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow remains unimpressed, noting that such "features in China are increasingly par for the course and the ability to price for ADAS features on an ongoing basis is rapidly approaching 0 RMB."

While explaining his rationale, Jewsikow declares that Tesla is being hobbled in China by the country's stringent data export controls, which limit "the robust data training advantages that TSLA has in the US."

"We believe TSLA is competing with one hand tied behind its back in China with respect to FSD, as the robust data training advantages that TSLA has in the US do not apply in China, with CEO Musk highlighting that training of FSD in China was being done in part by open source online images and videos rather than proprietary vehicle data."

According to the Guggenheim analyst, this paradigm has rendered Tesla "at a disadvantage vs. local Chinese competitors who do not have the same restrictions with respect to vehicle data."

Nonetheless, Tesla's roll out of FSD-like features to over 2 million vehicles in China do allow for material deferred revenue recognition in Q1'25, "even with very low FSD attach rate historically," and that is something that Jewsikow thinks merits continued attention.

Given his largely unenthusiastic response to Tesla's latest FSD-related moves in China, Jewsikow has, unsurprisingly, maintained a 'Sell' rating on Tesla shares.

Meanwhile, in what is a nod to Tesla's mounting challenges, its sales in Europe are utterly cratering, dropping by 45 percent year-over-year in January 2025 even as the total EV sales grew by 37 percent.

And, as per the DMV VIN data compiled by @TroyTeslike, Tesla's Cybertruck production in Q1 is tracking lower than any of the last three quarters.

Rohail Saleem Photo

About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.

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