The Tensor G5 was a disappointing release, as Google’s first SoC to utilize TSMC’s cutting-edge lithography was once again behind the competition in raw performance and efficiency. Despite these shortcomings, the Mountain View is expected to witness the highest year-over-year chipset shipments growth for 2026, beating out its rivals, who are estimated to see declines in the tally due to the DRAM shortage.
Global smartphone chipset shipments to decline by 7% in 2026, with Chinese OEMs hit the hardest; Apple, Samsung, and Google are better positioned thanks to a strong integrated supply chain and robust focus on in-house silicon development
The latest details from Counterpoint Research’s Soumen Mandal indicate that DRAM and NAND flash are becoming core cost drivers, pushing the Bill of Materials (BoM) to 20 percent for flagships. This year, smartphone shipments are forecast to decline by 6.1 percent, while chipset shipments are forecast to decline by 6.1 percent. Chinese OEMs are expected to be hit the hardest due to their extreme reliance on Qualcomm and MediaTek.
Speaking of MediaTek, the fabless semiconductor manufacturer has been reported to be struck the most because of the DRAM shortage, as more than 50 percent of its quarterly revenue comes from chipset shipments. Thankfully, the amount of volume commanded by the company means that it will still hold the top rank for overall shipments this year.
The in-house chipset strategies of Apple, Google, and Samsung mean the companies will be somewhat sheltered from the shortage, as outlined in the forecast details below:
- Google - 18.9 percent (new forecast), 13.3 percent (old forecast)
- Samsung - 7.3 percent (new forecast), 5.1 percent (old forecast)
- Apple - -4.4 percent (new forecast), -4.4 percent (old forecast)
“In this context, global smartphone shipments are expected to decline 6.1% YoY in 2026, while smartphone SoC shipments are projected to fall 7% compared to 2025. Chinese OEMs are likely to be hit the hardest, while Apple and Samsung are better positioned due to integrated supply chains and a continued shift toward premiumization. Among SoC vendors,
UNISOC faces the steepest decline due to its exposure to the shrinking low-end 4G market. In contrast, Google is expected to see the strongest growth, supported by AI differentiation and expanding traction beyond the US and Japan. Samsung’s launch of the 2nm Exynos 2600 further strengthens its vertical strategy, while MediaTek and Qualcomm face mixed outcomes as premium platforms offset weakness in volume segments.”
Counterpoint Research previously predicted that smartphone BoM could rise by 25 percent, leading to a 2.1 percent decline in shipments, with the possibility that manufacturers are forced to introduce 4GB RAM configurations to maintain their margins.
About the author: Omar Sohail is a reporter and analyst for Wccftech's mobile section, specializing in the technology and business of the mobile industry. His expertise lies in the intricate hardware supply chain, covering developments in semiconductor manufacturing, chip lithography, and camera sensor technology.
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