Bitcoin Officially Enters a Macro Uptrend Ahead of the “Halving Event” Next Year, but the US Government’s 41,500 BTC Stash Remains a Major Threat

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As we noted in a post that was published toward the end of last year, Bitcoin has officially bottomed in the first quarter of 2023 and has now entered a macro uptrend. However, the US government’s scheduled liquidation of 41,500 Bitcoins is expected to continue to act as a sentiment dampener even as the excitement around the upcoming halving event grows.

#BTC has broken the Macro Downtrend

History has shown that when Macro Downtrends are broken...

Macro Uptrends begin$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/iYvLARGSeu

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 1, 2023

Bitcoin closed the month of March above the crucial $25,000 price level. This means that the world’s premier cryptocurrency has broken its macro downtrend and entered a major uptrend, as per the tabulations by Rekt Capital.

#BTC has officially confirmed its Quarterly Bullish Engulfing Candle

The last time $BTC formed a Quarterly Bullish Engulfing Candle was in early 2020#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/nmhm6GA3ZW

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 1, 2023

Not only that, but Bitcoin also formed a bullish quarterly engulfing candle, which has historically preceded rip-roaring gains.

#BTC has repeated history with a Macro Downtrend breakout around 365 to 397 days before the Halving

In this cycle, $BTC broke out ~385 days before the Halving

History has repeated itself#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/GmMrCw8AKx

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 1, 2023

Moreover, with just around a year to go until Bitcoin’s halving event, when the reward for mining a block will be cut in half from 6.25 BTC to just 3.125 BTC, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency by market capitalization appears to have conformed with historical precedents of breaking out of its downtrend between 365 and 397 days before the issuance-reducing event.

Surprisingly, the lawsuit filed by the CFTC against Binance last week, where the world’s biggest crypto exchange and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), were charged on multiple counts, including wilful evasion of federal law and operating an illegal digital asset derivatives exchange, appears to have had little impact on Bitcoin’s price trajectory. This is all the more important as Binance makes up a whopping 92 percent of Bitcoin’s spot market.

Agreed 110%

Binance news had no effect

Scared money long gone

— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) March 29, 2023

This suggests that all of the weak hands have already been eliminated, leaving diamond-hand investors to dictate the cryptocurrency’s future price action.

Nonetheless, one major hurdle that Bitcoin is likely to face over the coming months now deals with a huge stash of 41,500 BTC that the US government intends to liquidate over the course of the year. This stash relates to the Silk Road marketplace for illicit goods that was shut down by the authorities 10 years back, and its founder, Ross Ulbricht, is currently serving two life sentences. Back in 2012, James Zhong had stolen over 50,000 BTC from the Silk Road marketplace. This stash was confiscated by the US authorities in 2021. As per a filing with the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, the authorities liquidated 9,861 BTC on the 14^th of March and intend to sell the rest of the stash over the coming months in four batches. This equates to an expected selling pressure of $1.18 billion.

#BTC has recently performed a major confirmation of a new macro uptrend$BTC is well-positioned over the mid to long-run

However in the short-term, it's not yet clear if a healthy pullback isn't needed

Next few days will let us know if a Double Top is forming#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/MirsaWkqSx

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 2, 2023

Do note that Bitcoin might yet form a double-top pattern, which would likely herald further short-term weakness. Even so, its macro uptrend is now expected to remain intact.

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