Analyst Claims He’s Figured Out the Lifespan for an Average Apple Device

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Mar 2

New research related to the average lifespan of an Apple product has been shared by an analyst, claiming that he has figured out when your device will be more likely to fail after a certain period of use. On a side note, a long time back, IBM even reported that investing in a Mac was much cheaper, in the long run, thanks to its reliability factor.

Asymco Analyst Claims That an Average Apple Device Will Last for a Little More Than 4 Years

According to Horace Dediu, the research presented by him reveals that the average Apple device is going to last for a little more than four years. This can also mean that an expensive Apple product might be shipped to your home as ‘dead on arrival’ or, will last you till a point where you will need to feel that an upgrade is necessary because the performance of the previous device will not be able to keep up with your requirements.

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Keep in mind that Dediu’s research did not target a specific product, but covers a wide range of the company’s products in one given lifespan. As to how he gets to the 4-year 3-month figure, he simply states that if you use the number of active devices and cumulative devices sold, that is how you will get to the average lifespan.

In order to calculate the estimated average lifespan, you calculate the time between cumulative devices sold at the beginning of a product’s lifespan and the current cumulative retired devices. After looking at the devices Apple sold in Q2 2013 and retired in Q4 2017, that was when he came to the conclusion that the average Apple device lifespan comes to a little over four years.

“Here’s how to compute this yourself: Visually, the lifespan is the distance horizontally between the two vertical bars such that the bars are the same length. The top vertical bar measures the gap between the area (cumulative devices) and the curve (active devices) and the lower bar is the gap between the area and the x-axis, i.e. the cumulative devices. When those two bars are the same size the distance between them is the lifespan (at the time of the top bar.)

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Arithmetically, the average lifespan at a given time t is the duration between t and the moment when the cumulative devices sold reached the cumulative retired devices at time t.

For example today–as the visual above represents–the lifespan is the time since cumulative devices sold reached the current total retired devices. The cumulative retired devices can be calculated as 2.05 billion cumulative sold minus 1.3 billion active or 750 million. The time when cumulative devices sold reached 750 million was the third quarter 2013. The lifespan is thus estimated at the time between now and Q3 2013 or 17 quarters or about 4 years and three months.”

Have you had an Apple product that lasted you for more than that? Tell us down in the comments.

Source: Asymco