Apple Projected to Ship 120 Million 5G iPhones in 2020, for 60% of Total Shipments

Jan 10, 2020
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Cupertino tech giant Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is soaring to new highs on the stock market. Since it revised earnings guidance based on headwinds from China last year, Apple has broken all records and continued to smash its 52-week price records day-after-day. This unprecedented optimism in the company's fortune and futures comes despite the fact that it is facing troubles with the iPhone; troubles which aren't new, and which have persisted despite Apple's attempts at not only rebranding the iPhone but also introducing new semi-mid-range, semi-flagship additions.

Its upcoming earnings results for the fiscal year 2020's first quarter will demonstrate whether Apple's decision to sneakily include a sub-premium LCD-based smartphone alongside its high end, 'professional-grade' smartphone has paid off. Reports from the supply chain and from market research agencies have consistently suggested that the LCD iPhone 11 is performing quite well in both the United States and China - two of the world's biggest smartphone markets.

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However, while investors, analysts and anyone else who's interested will be tuned in for Apple's performance over its historically important quarter, neither can ignore that the company has an equally, if not more, crucial year ahead. Apple is widely reported to launch the 5G iPhone lineup this year, and now, analysis from the Taiwanese press is out with iPhone unit shipment figures in China for the year 2019 and 2020.

Apple's iPhone 11 features a dual-camera setup on its back, adding one sensor over its predecessor, the iPhone XR.

Apple Inc Will Ship 200 Million iPhones In 2020, With 120 Million of These Being 5G Smartphones

In a fresh report, the Taiwanese daily Focus Appledaily is out with some unit shipment estimates for the iPhone. These figures cover calendar years 2019 and 2020 and subsequently provide us with fresh insight on what to expect from the company's income statement in its upcoming earnings release and for the rest of this year.

The first bit of the report covers Apple's unit shipments in China for 2019 and is relatively simple. It uses data from China's Academy of Information and Communication Technology to ascertain Apple's iPhone unit shipments in the country for 2019. As per the details, total smartphone shipments in China for 2019 stood at 372 million and of these, 91.8% were Android devices. This leaves behind 8.2% devices as iOS, revealing that Apple shipped approximately 33 million devices in China last year. For reference, JP Morgan pegs the company's unit shipments for the fiscal year 2020 to be 198 million.

The second bit of the report covers the future and concerns itself with Apple's global iPhone unit shipments in 2020. Market estimates in Taiwan believe that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) will ship 200 million iPhones this year, and out of these, 60% will be of 5G smartphones. The bulk of these will come on the back of users with the iPhone 6S and iPhone 7 lineup upgrading. This marks 120 million 5G iPhone shipments this year, with the report also speculating that we'll see four new 5G-based iPhones from Apple in 2020.

This figure of 200 million shipments will still be less than the number of devices Apple moved around the world in its fiscal years 2016, 2017 and 2018.

Unit Shipment Projections For 5G iPhones Enable Rough Approximation Of Apple's Revenues As Institutional Managers Maintain Holdings In Company

Given that today's market estimates put shipments of Apple's 2020 iPhone models at 120 million, we can roughly ascertain the potential revenue contribution the fresh gadgets will make to the company's income statement. Assuming an average selling price of $800 (on the back of more shipments of budget successors to the iPhone 11), 120 million 2020 iPhones can contribute up to 96 billion to Apple's coffers this year, marking for 68% of the company's total revenue from the lineup in the fiscal year 2019.

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As the company's stock reaches new highs, 13f filings consistently reveal that institutional managers are demonstrating mixed feelings for their stakes in the company. One filing, by the Larson Financial Group that surfaced today, shows that the firm decreased its holdings to 10,255 Apple shares from 11,001 shares over the course of 2019. Another one, from Manning & Napier Group, shows that the firm acquired 2554 Apple shares in 2019, bringing its total holdings in the company up to 4178 shares as of today.

In addition to the iPhone, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is expected to demonstrate strong performance from the AirPods this quarter. The company also had a record week of sales from the App Store in the seven days between Christmas and New Year. Additionally, sales on the App Store broke the all-time daily record on New Year's day 2020. Despite the iPhone losing steam, Apple seems to have some tricks up its sleeve that remain. But can it sustain? We'll find out soon enough. Until then, stay tuned and let us know what you think in the comments section below. We'll keep you updated on the latest.

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