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There is vociferous outrage against McDonald's right now for pegging the price of a Big Mac meal at $18, never mind the caveat that the skewed pricing pertained to a single outlet out of the thousands on the continental US. Yet, even if we assume that this fast food inflationary trend is aggressive and widespread, it is certainly not sustainable, as highlighted by the fact that a veritable Wall Street titan now expects global annual sales of GLP-1 anti-obesity drugs to reach a whopping $130 billion by 2030.
"It frustrates and worries me when I hear about an $18 Big Mac meal being sold - even if it was at one location in the U.S. More worrying, though, is when people believe that the prices of a Big Mac have risen 100% since 2019." https://t.co/Tt1eA5KKRC pic.twitter.com/F7bD12EU8K
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) May 30, 2024
McDonald's US President, Joe Erlinger, has now published a blog post, tackling head-on the brewing controversy around Big Mac meals supposedly being priced out of the affordable range:
"I can tell you that it frustrates and worries me, and many of our franchisees, when I hear about an $18 Big Mac meal being sold - even if it was at one location in the U.S. out of more than 13,700."
Erlinger goes on to note:
"The average price of a Big Mac in the U.S. was $4.39 in 2019. Despite a global pandemic and historic rises in supply chain costs, wages and other inflationary pressures in the years that followed, the average cost is now $5.29. That’s an increase of 21% (not 100%)."
Of course, critics would be correct in pointing out that a 21 percent price hike for a meal that is premised on affordability is nonetheless a cause of concern. As a testament to the Big Mac meal's globally ubiquitous nature, consider the fact that the Economist magazine uses it to compare inflationary trends across the globe via its bespoke Big Mac index, allowing a first-glance estimation as to how overvalued or undervalued a particular currency is relative to its peers.
Akin to the peak oil thesis, the current trend of fast food inflation, however, is simply not sustainable. The reason: growing penetration of the GLP-1 anti-obesity drugs in population cohorts that are the most avid consumers of this type of caloric-rich food.
GOLDMAN: "We update our market model for Obesity therapeutics and now forecast total worldwide sales of .. $130bn in 2030, an increase from our prior $100bn forecast. .. For $LLY, we now forecast revenues for the company’s AOM portfolio .. in 2024/2027/2030 at $5.3bn, $27.6bn and…
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 30, 2024
To wit, Goldman Sachs has now significantly increased its projections for the sale of GLP-1 drugs, pegging its estimate of annual global sales of these drugs at $130 billion by 2030.
In fact, financial analysts have already started to downgrade the long-term demand outlook for fast food giants such as McDonald's, based on assumptions that 7 percent of the total population in the US would be using GLP-1 drugs in the next 10 years, with the average caloric consumption of those users declining by around 20 percent.
LOL Hims and Hers 503B-ing semaglutide. $199/month. Cash, no insurance, no BS, to your door.
This can't last long, $NVO / $LLY have to be livid. Going to do some reading on mechanics/criteria for FDA shortage list. $HIMS + 15%https://t.co/tktVMj7VlF pic.twitter.com/FlO3wok73B
— STL Biotech (@STL_Biotech) May 20, 2024
So, with the average caloric consumption of some of the most avid fast food eaters in the US expected to decline by a fifth in the next few years, the current pricing trend is about to meet a demand headwind that can play an important role in capping significant price hikes, barring those related to pure cost-push measures in an inflationary economy.
For the benefit of those who might not be aware, the GLP-1 hormone plays an important role in suppressing hunger and regulating the production of insulin and glucose. After a meal, GLP-1 agonists raise the level of insulin, which decreases blood glucose levels. Simultaneously, these drugs reduce the speed at which the stomach empties its contents into the small intestine, thereby increasing the feeling of fullness and satiation.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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