An Apple iPhone super upgrade cycle is only a matter of when, and not if, going by two devastatingly simple facts - courtesy of CLSA analyst Bhavtosh Vajpayee - that clearly delineate the ageing iPhone installed base and the associated incentive to upgrade to a newer device.
Fact # 1: Around 150 Million iPhones Around The World Can't Upgrade To The Latest iOS Version
Apple's latest iOS 26 is not compatible with iPhone XS and XR, which excludes around 150 million devices - equivalent to around 10 percent of the iPhone userbase - from the Cupertino giant's latest software-based bells and whistles.
A given iPhone is now, on average, a whopping 6.5 years old, which is substantially long in the tooth, and bolsters the case for an imminent upgrade super cycle.
Fact # 2: Around 975 Million iPhones Globally Can't Run Apple Intelligence
Apple Intelligence - the company's bespoke AI-based offering - currently requires iPhone 15 Pro or above to function. According to an estimation by CLSA, this excludes a whopping 65 percent of the current iPhone installed base, or around 975 million devices, from leveraging Apple's AI functionalities on their smartphones.
Critically, this estimation takes into account the iPhone 17 lineup's projected sales figures. When one excludes this projection, around 78 percent of the current global iPhone userbase, equivalent to around 1.17 billion devices, becomes ineligible for Apple Intelligence features.
2026 Is Likely To Be A Pivotal Year For Apple
Accordingly, the much-anticipated super upgrade cycle for Apple iPhones is likely to materialize in 2026. As such, Apple appears to be cognizant of these underlying dynamics, especially as it is reportedly preparing to launch six different iPhone variants in the upcoming year: the iPhone 17e, the base iPhone 18, its Air, Pro, and Pro Max versions, as well as a foldable iPhone.
As we noted recently, Apple is reportedly targeting a 10 percent shipment growth for its smartphones in 2026, banking on incremental demand from its new foldable iPhone variant to achieve this feat.
As a refresher, Apple shipped 232 million iPhones in 2024. Moreover, IDC forecasts that Apple is likely to achieve a 4 percent shipment growth in 2025, which equates to a total shipment volume of around 241 million units for the ongoing year. As such, a 10 percent growth from implied 2025 levels equates to a delta of around 265 million units.
The Cupertino giant is also reportedly working on AI smart glasses to take on Meta's uncontested ascendancy in the sphere. These glasses are now expected to launch in 2026.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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