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With investors and sell-side analysts alike focused on Tesla's upcoming robotaxi reveal event in August, the EV giant's ongoing demand-related malaise has taken somewhat of a back seat, substantially reducing the importance of today's quarterly delivery report in the process. This periodic delivery disclosure, however, continues to retain utility in helping investors to sniff out signs of a sustainable recovery in the demand for Tesla's product mix.
$TSLA last-minute thoughts:
1/ TSLA’s IR-compiled 2Q delivs consensus is 437.8K vs Bloomberg average of 439.3K.
2/ @Troyteslike final 2Q estimate of 423K compares to prior estimate of 416K. See today’s interview published by Benzinga which is the first media quotes I ever recall… pic.twitter.com/tVPezkhwb5— Gary Black (@garyblack00) July 1, 2024
Do note that, as per Tesla's IR-compiled consensus estimate, Wall Street analysts expect the EV giant to have delivered 437,800 units in Q2 2024. On the other hand, as per a separate compilation of sell-side analysts' estimates by Bloomberg, the expectations around this key metric are currently pegged at 439,300 units.
The table shows my final estimates for Tesla's production and deliveries this quarter.
Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q2 2024:
• My estimate: 423,000
• Analyst consensus: 441,000I'm aiming for less than a 3% error as usual. For more details, I've just posted an update on… pic.twitter.com/IfQXBENlS8
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) June 30, 2024
Of course, Troy Teslike, who is known for his accurate predictions of Tesla's quarterly deliveries, expects the EV giant to have delivered 423,000 units in the just-concluded quarter, which aligns with Wall Street's current whisper number of around 420,000 units.
Tesla Delivers 443,956 Units In Q2 2024
This brings us to the crux of the matter. Just moments ago, Tesla disclosed that it delivered 443,956 units in Q2 2024 against a production level of 410,831 units. For the benefit of those who might not be aware, Tesla had delivered 386,810 units in the first quarter of the year against a production level of 433,371 units.
Tesla's Quarterly Deliveries
Under the hood, note that Tesla’s inventory has materially decreased in Q2 2024. At the end of Q1 2024, the company’s Days of Finished Goods Inventory metric stood at 28, based on an inventory level of 144,409.067 units and an average daily delivery rate of 5,157.467 vehicles (assuming 75 working days in a quarter). For Q2 2024, Tesla’s Days of FG Inventory (also known as the Days of Supply metric) has decreased to 18.80, based on a new inventory level of 111,284.067 units and an average daily delivery rate of 5919.413.
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