Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), one of the most prominent retailers of data center servers and liquid-cooled AI racks, has been trapped in the market's purgatory ever since the stock cleared its biggest near-term overhang by filing its requisite financial statements with the SEC in the nick of time to avoid a damaging delisting event. Now, a Wall Street analyst has stepped up to provide some much-needed context to SMCI's confounding weakness.
Super Micro Computer recently provided a fairly disappointing near-term guidance, but was able to limit the fallout by aggressively ramping up its projections for FY 2026. To wit, SMCI now expects to earn $40 billion in full-year revenue in FY 2026 vs. Wall Street's consensus estimate of just $29 billion.
Now, Northland analyst Nehal Chokshi is out with an important investment note on Super Micro Computer's prospects.
To wit, Chokshi hosted SMCI's IR team for a fireside chat on the 28th of February, after the company had filed its "delayed FY24 10K, F1Q25 10Q (Sept Q) and F2Q25 (Dec Q) 10Q on Tuesday, February 25th, NVDA reporting modest data center upside on Wednesday, February 26th and key peer DELL reporting results on Thursday, February 27th."
Bear in mind that NVIDIA and CoreWeave are Super Micro Computer's biggest customers, while Dell is its biggest competitor.
Before going further, do note that Super Micro Computer reported $5.65 billion in revenue for its fiscal Q2'25 and guided to a range of between $5 billion and $6 billion in revenue for its fiscal Q3'25 (March-ending quarter), which corresponds to a QoQ decline of ~6 percent at the low-end, and a QoQ increase of ~12 percent at the high-end of the range.
Coming back, Chokshi notes that the stated trajectory of Super Micro Computer's March-ending quarter - "guided down 12% q/q to up 6% q/q" - is largely a function of the fact that the company's GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS) customers "are unlikely to be at the front of the Blackwell queue."
Here, Chokshi adds additional color by noting that Blackwell GPUs constituted ~31 percent of NVIDIA's January-ending quarter revenue, "driving NVDA data center revenue up 16% q/q, implying Hopper shipments down 20% q/q."
Chokshi also notes that "consensus for DELL servers and networking is being projected flat q/q for the April Q, consistent with SMCI midpoint guidance, leading us to believe NVDA Blackwell shipments for the Jan Q indexed towards hyperscalers that DELL nor SMCI typically serve." Bear in mind that there is a roughly 8-week lag between when NVIDIA recognizes GPU revenue to when server OEMs recognize their top-line metric.
So, according to Chokshi, Super Micro Computer's near-term revenue is being impacted by NVIDIA's Blackwell queue and its preferential treatment of hyperscalers.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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