If you think the ongoing memory chipflation-led mayhem in the consumer electronics sphere is the worse it gets, the CEO of SK hynix wants you to think again, especially amid consistent reports that the memory sphere will not enter into a supply-demand equilibrium for many years to come.
The year 2027 will see wafer supply grow by 12%, but half of this growth will be consumed by HBM, limiting ex-HBM DRAM bit growth to 15% against a surge in demand of 22%
To wit, SK hynix CEO, Kwak Noh-jung, has just projected that tougher times lie ahead even after the memory-related upheaval seen so far, suggesting that 2027 "will be the worst year in the industry's history from the supply perspective."
Meanwhile, to put things into some much-needed context, a recent Business Times report disclosed that memory-related wafer supply is expected to increase by around 12 percent annually in 2027-2028, but around half of this supply will be consumed by HBM.
As such, Samsung will ship around 12 billion Gb of HBM in 2026, ramping it up to 20 billion Gb in 2027. Meanwhile, SK hynix will supply 18 billion Gb of HBM in 2026, and 24 billion Gb in 2027.
Consequently, non-HBM DRAM bit growth will be confined to an annual rate of 15 percent in 2027-2028, when demand is expected to grow by 22 percent.
To quantify capacity growth, Samsung's P5 Fab 1 will come online by July 2027, while the P5 Fab 2 and another facility at Yongin will start producing by 2029. For SK hynix, the Yongin Y1 fab will come online in February 2027, while the Y2 will do so in H2 2028.
Of course, CXMT's planned transition to DDR6 can be one mitigating factor. Even so, its production timelines are uncertain at the moment, and so is its ability to supply outside of China.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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