- 0-20%: Unlikely - Lacks credible sources
- 21-40%: Questionable - Some concerns remain
- 41-60%: Plausible - Reasonable evidence
- 61-80%: Probable - Strong evidence
- 81-100%: Highly Likely - Multiple reliable sources
90%
Highly Likely
Although we are getting closer to 2027, Sony has yet to make any official announcement about the PlayStation 6. Despite the silence on the matter, especially amidst the rising costs of components, a recent report from Embracer Group analysts suggests the next-generation system may release in 2028 or even 2029. However, there's a good chance these fears of delays will remain unwarranted, judging by the reaction of known AMD hardware leaker Kepler_L2.
In a reply to a NeoGAF forum thread focused on the analyst report mentioned above, the AMD leaker dropped the iconic Danny DeVito "Nope" animated GIF from the TV show It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, flatly dismissing the possibility of such a massive delay. It's not the first time the leaker has suggested a delay isn't on the table, no matter the current market conditions, as AMD wouldn't waste resources validating the next-gen system if a delay were a concrete possibility.
While Kepler_L2 did not explicitly explain why the PlayStation 6 is not being delayed, the insider strategically liked a post by user Bojji detailing exactly why such a long delay doesn't make sense.
Delaying the console when it's basically done doesn't make any sense, they have TSMC contracts for production of APUs, maybe even GDDR7 contracts with memory makers, R&D done that costed them few hundred millions...
PS5 sales are slowing down and there is NO guarantee that memory prices will drop between now and 2030.
Releasing it in 2027 - several millions units sold before 2030, when memory price drops you just lower price of the console and gain massive market share (on top of what you already sold)
Releasing it in 2030 - no sales.... in 2030 memory prices could be lower, the same or higher. You start from scratch.
The analysis from NeoGAF member Bojji liked by Kepler_L2 echoes what another known leaker, Moore's Law is Dead, noted back in March. After securing its TSMC 3nm manufacturing allotment for Q2 2027, pulling out now wouldn't just cause a minor delay, as it would also cost Sony its priority fab status, resulting in a much longer setback. In addition, Sony already has a history of launching systems under challenging market conditions, so launching the PlayStation 6 under the current component climate wouldn't be anything new for the Japanese company.
If the PlayStation 6 is indeed launching in 2027, Sony is likely targeting a late-year release. As such, we may be only a few months away from the official reveal of a system that is said will deliver 4K, 120 FPS gaming across the board with enhanced PSSR (PlayStation Spectral Super Resolution) and advanced ray-tracing performance.
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