Tesla launched a revamped version of the Model Y earlier this year with characteristic aplomb, hoping that it would reverse its boycott-driven stuttering sales momentum, which is largely a product of Elon Musk's controversial political role in the US and his unequivocal support for fringe elements in the EU.
Even though Elon Musk is no longer the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and had clearly communicated on the recent Tesla earnings call that he would de-prioritize his political activities, there is seemingly no end to the ongoing backlash against the EV giant.
As we reported in a related post, Tesla is now resorting to incentives, including zero percent financing, to boost the new Model Y's flagging sales momentum.
This brings us to the crux of the matter. As per the bets on the popular Kalshi platform, Tesla is currently expected to deliver only 355,000 EVs in the ongoing second quarter of 2025. Our readers can view the pertinent betting contract here.
For the benefit of those who might not be aware, Tesla delivered 336,681 units in Q1 2025 against a production level of 362,615 units. Elon Musk had blamed factory retooling for the new Model Y as a contributing factor to Tesla's decelerating sales momentum ahead of the Q1 delivery report.
Of course, if the current betting tenor on Kalshi pans out, Tesla would end up recording a 20 percent year-over-year decline in deliveries, based on the 443,956 units that the EV giant had delivered in the second quarter of 2024.
There is, however, a chance that Tesla might be able to turn things around in the next few months. For one, the EV giant is expected to launch cheaper models that bear the form factor of its existing models, but stripped to the proverbial bone. According to Future Fund's Gary Black, however, these models will not expand the TAM for Tesla, and eat into its overall margins.
Tesla's biggest bet, however, is currently on the autonomy front. The EV giant will launch unsupervised FSD on the Model Y in Austin, Texas, this June. By the end of 2025, Tesla intends to roll out this service to a number of US cities. Also, the EV giant will start operating between 10 and 20 robotaxis in Austin this June.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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