80%
Probable
According to movie insider V Scooper, Nintendo is pitching a movie based on its sci-fi franchise Metroid. V Scooper added that Sony Pictures and Universal Pictures are fighting to win the rights to produce it:
Metroid, last I heard a few months ago, was still in a bit of a push between studios, no updates since. Sony is one of the stronger contenders for Metroid, Universal is also fighting for it, both are leaning for live action but this could change.
Both studios have experience adapting Nintendo IPs to the big screen. Universal, through its Illumination subsidiary, was extremely successful with the two Super Mario movies that have been released. Sony, on the other hand, is producing the live action Zelda movie that recently wrapped filming. Directed by Wes Ball and written by Derek Connolly and T. S. Nowlin, it features Benjamin Evan Ainsworth as Link and Bo Bragason as Zelda; it's already set for a theatrical debut on May 7, 2027.
V Scooper says both studios want to make Metroid a live action movie, which would rule out Illumination, since Chris Meledandri's studio only makes animated movies. The insider is considered to be mid-tier: in the Marvel Studios subreddit, it is listed in the Tier 2 ("Approved and Mostly Reliable") category. However, he wasn't the only one to tease this project; Daniel Richtman, also known as DanielRPK, had claimed the same a couple of months ago, while also adding that the adaptation should feature the Metroid Prime storyline (which recently got its latest chapter with Metroid Prime 4: Beyond).
If the live action part of the rumor is confirmed, it will be interesting to see who's picked for the role. According to Metroid lore, Samus Aran is a very tall (6'3) blonde woman with striking blue eyes. The closest match would probably be Elizabeth Debicki, who's actually the same height and would be a great fit for Samus.
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