A hint of circumspection around NVIDIA appears to be creeping into the commentaries of the more discerning financial powerhouses that populate Wall Street. Consider the latest investment note from Jefferies, where the financial advisory firm adopts a markedly cautious tone vis-à-vis NVIDIA's prospects for 2025.
A few weeks back, Morgan Stanley saw NVIDIA shipping up to 450,000 units of the Blackwell GPUs in the December-ending quarter, and between 700,000 and 800,000 units of Blackwell GPUs in Q1'25.
Fast-forward to this week, when Raymond James noted that it now saw NVIDIA shipping "around 100,000 Blackwell GPUs in 4Q, which is likely at the lower end of investor expectations." The investment bank, however, was decidedly bullish on NVIDIA's 2025 prospects:
"That said, we anticipate an acceleration in Blackwell ramps in 1H25, with strong demand extending through 2025."
Today, it is the turn of analysts at Jefferies to expound on NVIDIA's near-term prospects.
Jefferies Raises $NVDA PT to $185 from $150, Maintains Buy Rating
Analyst Comments: "We expect a similar story to the last several quarters with a beat and raise in the $2B range. While expectations continue to creep higher, we believe the stock continues to work as we are in…
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) November 15, 2024
To wit, Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis begins by reiterating that he expects the high-flying maker of GPUs to repeat the story that has consistently played out over the past few quarters, replete "with a beat and raise in the $2B range."
Curtis notes that Wall Street expects NVIDIA to earn at least $200 billion in revenue and $5 in earnings per share (EPS) in 2025, with some estimates reaching as high as $6 in EPS.
The Jefferies analyst then notes:
"While we are positive on unit upside, many of these estimates might be assuming overly aggressive ASPs, stemming from misconceptions that NVDA would sell entire racks for the GB200 NVL."
Curtis expects NVIDIA to ship ~6 million GPUs in 2025, which is lower than most estimates on Wall Street:
"Our roughly 6M GPU unit assumption implies DC revenue closer to $180-200B compared to buyside expectations in the $205-215B range."
Despite his cautious tone, Curtis remains bullish on the GPU manufacturer's prospects, as evidenced by his reiteration of a 'Buy' rating for the stock with a target of $185 per share, up from an earlier peg at $150.
"Blackwell is starting to ramp, with a 'few billion' this quarter and further growth as small volumes of the GB200 layer in next quarter. Hopper is still growing during this transition as prior deployments are filled out. We raise our estimates to reflect our updated expectations for the Blackwell ramp."
NVIDIA shares are down ~2 percent at the time of writing. Year to date, the stock is up a whopping 200 percent.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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